[OC] The Overly-Long and Probably-Wrong list of the Top Draft Prospects
As a basketball fan, it's always fun to speculate on the NBA Draft prospects. That said, I'd stress the speculate part of that statement. As an outsider with no real access to these players, it's hard to be arrogant and steadfast in our opinions. We're working with about 10% as much information as actual NBA teams. If you feel confident in your analysis based on some highlight tapes of James Wiseman dunking on South Carolina State or LaMelo Ball jacking up shots in the Australian League, god bless you. And if you want to read my amateur analysis, god bless you too. But before you do, remember to check your sodium levels and take these picks with a grain of salt.
BEST PROSPECTS in the 2019-20 NBA DRAFT
(1) SG Anthony Edwards, Georgia Based on pure stats, Anthony Edwards would be one of the least impressive # 1 picks of all time. We're talking about a player who just averaged 19-5-3 on bad shooting splits (40-29-77) on a bad Georgia team. In fact, the Bulldogs didn't even crack .500 (finishing 16-16). All things considered, this isn't the resume of a top overall pick. It's like a kid with a 2.9 GPA applying to Harvard Law. Still, the "eye test" helps Edwards' case in the same way it helped proud Harvard alum Elle Woods. Edwards has a powerful frame (strong and long with a 6'9" wingspan) and a scorer's mentality. He's going to be a handful for NBA wings to contend with, especially when he's going downhill. And while he hasn't shown to be a knockdown shooter, his form looks better than the results suggest. I'd project that he can become an average (35-36%) three-point shooter in time. It may be unfair to label Edwards with the "best case scenario" comparison -- Dwyane Wade, for example -- but it may be just as unfair to liken him to "worst case scenario" comps like Dion Waiters as well. One of the reasons that Waiters is such an inefficient scorer in the NBA is that he's allergic to the free-throw line; he averages 3.1 FTA per 36 minutes. Edwards didn't live at the FT line, but he did get there 5.3 times per game. With more encouragement from an analytical front office or coaching staff, Edwards has the potential to get to the line 7-8 times a game and raise his ceiling in terms of efficiency. The key for Edwards' career is going to be his work ethic and basketball character. As a prospect, he reminds me of Donovan Mitchell; in fact, he's ahead of where Mitchell was at the same age. That said, Mitchell is a natural leader who made a concerted effort to improve his body and his overall game. If Edwards can do the same, he has true All-Star potential. If he walks into the building thinking he's already a superstar, then he may never become one. best fits Anthony Edwards has some bust potential, but he also has true star potential. Given that, it'd be great to see him go to a team that's willing to feature him. Chances are he won't last this long, but he'd be a great fit for Charlotte (#3). The Hornets desperately need a signature star, and Edwards has the chance to be a 20 PPG scorer within a year or two. worst fits If Edwards falls in the draft, he may end up clashing with the talent on the teams in the 4-5 range. Chicago (#4) already has a scoring guard in Zach LaVine. Meanwhile, Cleveland (#5) has already doubled up on scoring guards with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Adding a third would be a potential headache, both offensively and defensively. (2) C James Wiseman, Memphis A true center? Gross! What is this, 1970? Traditional big men tend to get treated that way these days. In some ways, they've become the "running backs" of the NBA. They once ruled the draft, but now they have to scrape and claw to climb into the top 5. Still, let's no go overboard here. Even if centers aren't as valuable as they used to be, there's still some value here. Some of the best centers in the game (Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, Joel Embiid, etc) have helped make their teams staples in the playoffs. Wiseman can potentially impact a team in the same way, especially on the defensive end. He can get beat on switches now and then, but he's about as agile as you can expect out of a kid who's 7'1" with a 7'6" wingspan. Offensively, he has an improving face-up game in addition to being a devastating lob threat. Another reason that I'm comfortable with Wiseman in the top 3 is because he appears to be a smart kid with the will to improve his game. He intends to keep stretching out his range towards three point territory. Even if he can be a passable three-point shooter (in the 33% range), that should help make him a consistent 18-12 player and a fringe All-Star. And if not, then he'll still be a viable starting center. best fits We mentioned Charlotte (#3) as a great fit for Anthony Edwards, and I'd say the same for Wiseman here. His game complements the more dynamic P.J. Washington well; between the two of them, they'd have the 4-5 spot locked up for years. While Wiseman's best chance to be a star may come in Charlotte, we don't know if he truly has that type of aggressive upside. The more likely scenario is him being a pretty good starting center with an emphasis on defense. In that case, he makes some sense in Golden State (#2) and Atlanta (#6). worst fits Apparently James Wiseman doesn't want to go to Minnesota (#1), which makes sense given the presence of Karl-Anthony Towns. If he slips, Chicago (#4) may also be an odd fit. Wiseman is a better prospect than Wendell Carter Jr., but they're not terribly dissimilar. The new Bulls administration didn't select Carter, but it still feels too early to give up on a recent # 7 pick. (3) PF/C Onyeka Okongwu, USC (HIGHER than most expert rankings) Another big man? I may be showing my age here. Still, I'm going to stick to my guns and suggest Onyeka Okongwu is a top 3 prospect in the class for some of the same reasons we ranked James Wiseman so highly. In fact, Okongwu is arguably an even better defensive prospect than Wiseman. While he doesn't have the same size (6'9" with a 7'1" wingspan), he's more switchable. He projects as a prowling, shot-blocking panther, not dissimilar to Bam Adebayo on Miami. Offensively, he flashes some solid skill here and there, although it's unlikely he'd get to Adebayo's level as a playmaker. Another aspect that should help Okongwu is his selflessness. In high school, he played for Chino Hills alongside stars Lonzo and LaMelo Ball. While there, he blended in and did the dirty work for the LaVar Traveling Circus. It's likely that Okongwu will play a similar role in the NBA, complementing a star perimeter player. While Okongwu may not have All-Star upside, I don't see much downside here. I'd be surprised if he's not a long-time starter at the center position (with the potential to play some PF if his shooting range improves.) best fits The most natural fits for Onyeka Okongwu mirror the best fits for James Wiseman. There’s a chance he may slip further than Wiseman too. Washington (#9) should be salivating if that’s the case. worst fits As a low-usage player, there aren't a lot of terrible fits for Okongwu on the board. However, Detroit (#7) already has Blake Griffin on a long-term deal and may re-sign Christian Wood as well. Given that, there wouldn't be much room for Okongwu barring a Griffin trade. (4) PG LaMelo Ball, U.S./Australia. (LOWER than most expect rankings) Every draft pick is an inherent gamble, but there's a difference between gambling in blackjack and gambling in Roulette. To me, LaMelo Ball is more of the latter. No doubt, there's a chance that you may get lucky and "win big" with LaMelo Ball. He has great height for the position at 6'6"/6'7", and he makes some exceptional passes that illustrate a rare court vision. ESPN's Draft Express team ranks him as the # 1 prospect overall, and I take that seriously. Those guys were way ahead of the curve on calling Luka Doncic a transcendent talent at a time when most others were still skeptical. At the same time, I'd say there is a sizable downside here as well. In fact, I'd estimate that there's a greater than 50/50 chance that Ball is a "bust" based on his current draft status. LaMelo Ball put up good raw numbers this past season in the NBL -- 17.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, 6.8 assists -- but he was in a situation specifically designed for him to put up good numbers. The efficiency tells a different story, as his shooting splits (38-25-72) look worrisome. Yes, height helps on defense, but it doesn't matter much if you're not locked in on that end. And yes, highlight-reel passes and super-deep threes are fun to watch, but they're not a path to consistency on offense. As Ball makes the jump to the NBA, he may smack hard into a wall and crash into the water like was on Wipeout. There's a chance he'll be among the worst players (from an advanced stats perspective) as a rookie. So what? We expect most rookies to struggle, right? That's true, but I'd be nervous about how LaMelo Ball and his camp would respond to those initial struggles. Again, I've never met the kid and have no real basis for this, but media interviews make him seem a little immature. That's totally understandable for a 19 year old, but it's not ideal for a 19 year old who's about to get handed the keys to an NBA franchise. If he struggles out of the gates, will he start to lose confidence? Will LaVar Ball start to make waves? Will the media gleefully tear him to shreds? No clue. And if I'm picking in the top 3, I'd prefer to have more confidence than question marks. best fits If we treat LaMelo Ball as a developmental project, then I'd prefer he land with a team like Chicago (#4). New coach Billy Donovan is a former PG himself, and spent decades working with young kids at the college level. If they slow play Ball's development, we may see the best of him down the road. Detroit (#7) also makes sense. Coach Dwane Casey has a pretty good reputation in player development himself, and he has a solid bridge PG in Derrick Rose to help buy Ball some time. worst fits Cleveland (#5) is an obviously wonky fit based on the current roster. I'd also assert that Charlotte (#3) is a poor fit as well. While the team desperately needs a signature star, they don't have the type of supporting cast that would be conducive to him right now. And if he struggles as a rookie, then coach James Borrego and the whole front office may be cleaned out. If that happens, a new administration would be inheriting a franchise player that they didn't pick in the first place. (5) SF/PF Deni Avdija, Israel The NBA tends to be reactionary when it comes to the draft, which can be particularly impactful for international prospects. Their stock tends to swing up and down more violently than a ride at Action Park. There was a ton of skepticism about Euros when Dirk Nowitzki came along. When he hit, the NBA got so excited they drafted Darko Milicic at # 2. Eventually that excitement wore off as the busts started to pile up again. But when Latvian Kristaps Porzingis looked like the real deal, it helped reverse that narrative and helped Dragan Bender go # 4 the following year. In terms of that up-and-down timing, Deni Avdija stands to benefit. He's coming into the NBA on the heels of an incredible sophomore campaign from Luka Doncic. No one thinks that Avdija can be a superstar like Doncic, but teams aren't as wary of international wings (specifically white wings) these days. Avdija should go somewhere in the top 10 if not the top 5. In my mind, that's justified. He's 6'9", which should allow him to play either the SF or PF positions. He hasn't shown to be an excellent shooter yet, but he should eventually be solid there. He's better suited as a playmaker and passer, and he can also use his size and skill to convert on slashes around the rim. I've seen some comparisons to Lamar Odom before, although that may be optimistic. More likely, he'll be a 4th or 5th starter. His experience as a pro should help toward that end, as he's used to working hard and fitting in on a team of vets. best fits If you project Deni Avdija to just "fit in" and be a solid starter, then he'd make sense on a team like Golden State (#2). He could effectively play the role of Harrison Barnes or old Andre Iguodala for them. If the intention is to make him more of a featured player, then the Knicks (#8) would be interesting. In that market, he has real star potential. worst fits I don't love the fit for Avdija in Charlotte (#3), where he may duplicate some of P.J. Washington's talents. Atlanta (#6) and Phoenix (#10) have also invested in young SF-PFs recently, so Avdija may find himself scraping for time there. (6) SG/SF Devin Vassell, Florida State (HIGHER than most expert rankings) Every single NBA team needs 3+D wings. They thirst for them like a dying man in the desert. And then, when a legitimate 3+D wing comes along, they often ignore them in favor of splashier players at other positions. Part of the issue is that low-usage 3+D wings aren't going to put up monster stats. That's certainly true of Devin Vassell, who averaged a modest 12.7 points this past year. Still, you have to go deeper than the pure numbers alone and consider the context. Florida State had a stacked and balanced team. In fact, Vassell's 12.7 PPG was the highest on the roster (and came in only 28.8 minutes.) There's more in the tank here than we've seen so far. He can hit the three (42% and 42% from deep in his two years), and he shows a good feel for the game (2:1 assist/turnover ratio.) Vassell shows even more potential on the defensive end. He's currently listed at 6'7" with a 6'10" wingspan, but he looks even longer than that to my eye. He's tenacious and disruptive (1.4 steals, 1.0 blocks) without being out of control. Presumably, he should be a good defender at either the SG or SF spot. In a sense, Vassell's the prototype for a 3+D wing. To be fair, I don't anticipate him being a great shooter at the next level. His FT% was iffy, and he's apparently been tweaking his shot during the draft process. Still, if he can be a viable shooting threat in the way that Josh Richardson is (an inconsistent shooter who averages around 36%), then he should be a solid starter for an NBA team. That may not sound like something worthy of a top 5 pick, but the high "floor" helps him in this case. He also appears to have a strong character and work ethic, making him feel like an even safer bet. best fits Devin Vassell's skill set would fit on virtually any NBA roster -- but his perceived lack of upside may keep him from going as high as my personal ranking. If he does, then Cleveland (#5) would be a nice fit given their lack of big wings and their lack of defense. Defensive-challenged Washington (#9) would also make sense; Vassell tends to be listed as a SG but he should have enough size to play the SF for them. worst fits You can never have too many 3+D wings, but it may be a duplication to put Devin Vassell on the same team with Mikal Bridges in Phoenix (#10). (7) PG Tyrese Haliburton, Iowa State One of the reasons I'd have to be specific about a fit with a player like LaMelo Ball is that he needs the ball in his hands to maximize his potential. That's true for most lead guards. Given that, it's a nice change of pace to see a prospect like Tyrese Haliburton come along. He's listed as a PG and he can perform those duties. This past season, he averaged 15.2 points and 6.5 assists per game. But he ALSO can operate as an off-the-ball player. As a freshman, he did exactly that, effectively working as a wing player and a glue guy on offense. His three-point shot looks wonky, but he converted 43% as a freshman and 42% as a sophomore. If that translates, he can be an effective spacer as well. Haliburton's versatility also extends to the defensive end. He's 6'5" with an incredible 7'0" wingspan, allowing him to guard either PG or SGs. Like Devin Vassell, he also puts those tools to good use. Either one is an incredible athlete, but they're disruptive and locked in on that end. I'd expect Haliburton to be one of the better guard defenders in the NBA. All in all, you may ask: why isn't this guy ranked HIGHER? The skill set would justify that. At the end of the day I don't see elite upside here (maybe George Hill?) because he may have some trouble getting his shot off in a halfcourt offense. Still, he's one of the safer prospects overall and a kid that you'd feel good betting on. best fits The New York Knicks (#8) may bring in a big-name guard like Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook, but if they stick with the rebuild then Tyrese Haliburton makes loads of sense. He can share playmaking duties with R.J. Barrett, and he can help Tom Thibodeau establish a defensive culture. He'd also make sense for Detroit (#7) and even Atlanta (#6). While the Hawks have Trae Young locked in at PG, Haliburton can play enough SG to justify 30+ overall minutes. worst fits Obviously any team that doesn't have room for a PG OR SG would be a problem here. Cleveland (#5) and Washington (#9) are the clearest examples of that. While Haliburton could theoretically guard some SFs, it's not the best use of his talent. (8) PG Killian Hayes, France If NBA centers are like NFL running backs, then point guards / lead playmakers may be like quarterbacks. There's positive and negatives to that comparison. Obviously, a good lead guard can immediately boost your team. At the same time, you don't really need more than one. And if you're not "the guy," then your impact is going to be limited. Given that, there's a high bar to being a starting PG in the NBA. You have to be really, really friggin' good. According to many experts, Killian Hayes is exactly that. Physically he's what you want in the position, with a 6'5" frame. He averaged 16.8 points and 7.8 assists per 36 playing in Germany this year for a team that had a few former pros like Zoran Dragic. The Ringer has him # 1 overall. Personally, I haven't completely bought into that hype yet. I can't claim to have season tickets to Ratiopharm Ulm, but when I watch highlights I don't really see ELITE traits here. He's not incredibly explosive, he's not a great shooter, he's over-reliant on his left hand. I have no doubt that he has the upside to be a good starter, but I don't think we've seen enough (or at least, I haven't) to make me confident in that projection. best fits Chicago (#4) and Detroit (#7) appear to be the most obvious fits for a potential star guard like Killian Hayes. And while the Knicks may have been underwhelmed by a French PG before, he would make sense for them at #8 as well. worst fits Teams with lead guards locked in -- Golden State (#2), Cleveland (#5), for example -- would be obviously problematic fits for Hayes. While he has the size to play some shooting guard defensively, he has a ways to go before he's a sharpshooting spacer. (9) SG/SF Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt (HIGHER than most expert rankings) Back when I was single, I dated a girl who presumably viewed me as a "developmental prospect." She'd always tell me how cool I'd look if I got some new jeans. How hot I'd be if I lost some weight. After a while, reality set in. It ain't happening, honey. What you see is what you get. The whole transformation idea may have worked with Chris Pratt, but it's not going to work with schlubby ol' Zandrick Ellison. Sometimes it feels like NBA teams view prospects in the same delusional way. Josh Jackson can be a superstar -- if he develops his shot! Isaac Okoro can be a great pick -- if he becomes a great shooter! IF IF IF. We tend to forget that it's not that easy for a leopard to change his spots or for a player to suddenly develop a shooting stroke. It may have worked with Kawhi Leonard, but it's not working with most players. Given that, we should value players who already have developed that skill. Aaron Nesmith is one of the best shooters in the draft -- right here, right now. He shot 52% from three and 83% from the line this past season. There's a sample size issue there (he only played 14 games prior to injury), but his shooting form looks fluid and suggests that he should be a legitimate 38-40% shooter from deep. While Nesmith isn't a great athlete or defender, his 7'0" wingspan should help him hang at either the SG or SF spots. All in all, we're talking about a player who should be a starter, or at the very least a high-level rotational player. best fits Aaron Nesmith isn't going to put a team on his back, but he can help carry the load offensively given his shooting ability. That should make him a good fit for a team like New Orleans (#13) as they look to replace J.J. Redick down the road. He'd also be an excellent fit with Orlando (#16) as they eye more shooters/scorers. worst fits It's hard to find a bad fit for a good shooting wing, but there are a few teams that may not have starting positions available. Phoenix (#10) already has Devin Booker and a few solid young SFs. Sacramento (#12) already has Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic (presuming they retain them.) (10) PG/SG R.J. Hampton, U.S/N.Z. (HIGHER than most expert rankings) After that rant about delusions of grandeur with development prospects, let me try and talk you into a raw developmental prospect. Like LaMelo Ball, R.J. Hampton went to play in the NBL during his gap year after high school. They were both top 10 prospects going in, but their stocks diverged from there. LaMelo Ball put up big numbers and locked himself into top 3 status. Hampton didn't showcase much (8.8 points per game on 41-30-68 shooting splits) and may drop out of the lottery altogether. But again, I'd caution us to consider context here. LaMelo Ball went to a bad team where he could jack up shots. Hampton played on a contending team that didn't spoon-feed him minutes. Given that limited sample, I'm falling back on the "eye test" here. No doubt, Hampton's shot is a problem. He's a poor shooter now, and it may be 2-3 years before he straightens it out. At the same time, his size and explosion jumps out at you, particularly when he's attacking the basket. He also appears to be a mature and charismatic young man. That combo -- physical talent + basketball character -- tends to be a winning formula. There's some chance Hampton turns out to be a genuine star as a scoring lead guard. There's also a sizable chance he busts. Still, it's the type of gamble that teams in the late lottery should be considering. best fits In a PG-rich class, it'd be bold for Detroit (#8) to reach on R.J. Hampton. Still, he would fit there, as the team could groom him behind Derrick Rose for another year or two until he's ready to take over for major minutes. Any team that can afford him the luxury of patience would be a nice landing spot, even if it means going later in the draft to places like Boston (#14, #26) or Utah (#23.) worst fits I'd be less bullish on R.J. Hampton in situations where he may have to play early and take his lumps. The N.Y. Knicks (#8) have struggled to develop point guards Frank Ntilkina and Dennis Smith already, and a new coaching staff doesn't make those concerns go away. Hampton would also have lower upside on teams that already have scoring guards locked in, like Sacramento (#12) or Portland (#16). (11) PF Obi Toppin, Dayton (LOWER than most expert rankings) When Obi Toppin sees the list of names ahead of him, he should be stewing with rage. He's arguably the most productive player on the entire board. This past season at Dayton, he averaged 20.0 points on 63% shooting from the field. He's a good athlete and dunker, and he even hit 39% of his threes. At 6'9", he's a natural PF but he could theoretically play some SF or C too if need be. What else does a guy need to do to go in the top 5?? But while Toppin checks all the boxes on paper, I'm a little more skeptical. In fact, he reminds me a lot of Arizona PF Derrick Williams, who went # 2 in the 2011 draft. Many pundits thought Williams was the best player in the class, fresh on the heels of an awesome sophomore season that saw him average 19.5 points per game on 60% shooting and 57% (!) from three. The trouble is: Williams benefited from a small sample size from 3 that year (74 total). And while he was athletic in the dunking sense, he didn't have the hip movement to guard 3s or 4s effectively. We see some of the same traits play out here with Toppin. He dominated this past season as a (22 year old) sophomore. Still, I'm doubtful that his three-point shooting is as good as the numbers suggest. I'm doubtful that his run-and-dunk athleticism translates to the defensive end, where he often looks stiff when changing direction. I can see a scenario where Toppin is a scoring big in the mold of a John Collins, but it's more likely to me that he'll be a scorer off the bench instead. best fits While I'm cool on Obi Toppin myself, I fully admit that I could be wrong and he may just end up being Rookie of the Year. That may happen if he plays on a team like Washington (#9) where his guards will be able to take a lot of pressure off and give him good opportunities to score. Cleveland (#5) would also make some sense if they trade Kevin Love. worst fits If Toppin's defense is going to be bad, then he'd be a poor fit with Atlanta (#6). I also don't see much of a fit with Sacramento (#12) given the presence of Marvin Bagley III. In the long run, both may end up being smallball 5s. (12) SF Isaac Okoro, Auburn (LOWER than most expert rankings) We've all had this experience before. You'll go see a movie that you hear everyone rave about and you come away... underwhelmed. It's fine. It's OK. But you just don't get all the fuss about it. Right out of that Silver Linings Playbook comes Isaac Okoro. His stats don't jump off the page: 12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks. He's allegedly a great defensive player, but his dimensions (6'6" with a 6'8" wingspan) don't suggest "stopper." Worse yet, he's a poor shooter from distance (29% from three, 67% from the line.) The last time I got this sense of "meh-ness" was Jarrett Culver last year. I didn't understand how he went in the top 5, and I'm not going to understand how Okoro goes in the top 10 this year. To be clear, I don't think Okoro (or Culver) is a BAD prospect, just that they're both overrated by the community. Okoro is definitely a strong kid who is active around the rim. He's a live body. He could theoretically improve his shooting and become a starter. Still, "potential starter" is not something that I want in a top 10 pick. best fits While I don't love Isaac Okoro myself, I can see some good fits on the board. Washington (#9) could use some thicker wings who can play solid defense. Portland (#16) is incredibly desperate for capable wings themselves. worst fits With Okoro, I don't necessarily think the worst fits are a matter of skill set as much as expectation. If he goes as high as Chicago (#4) or Cleveland (#5), I suspect he'll disappoint in terms of the returns and garner some resentment from the fan base. (13) SG/SF Josh Green, Arizona As oddly overrated as Isaac Okoro is (in my mind), Josh Green is oddly underrated. Okoro tends to go about 10 spots higher in mock drafts, but they seem nearly identical in terms of a head-to-head comparison. In fact, I had to go back and forth about which I'd rank higher. They're both good athletes for their position and should be backend starters at the next level. Okoro is thicker and better around the rim, while Green is further along as a shooter. Overall I leaned to Okoro because he had the size to match up with bigger SFs and has a little more of a bullying scorer gene in him, but it was a close race. In fact, you can argue that Josh Green's selflessness will actually benefit him in the NBA. He's a "team guy," with an underrated passing ability and basketball IQ. The stats don't jump off the pages in that regard (2.6 assists, 1.6 turnovers), but he was also playing with a good college PG in Nico Mannion. As he moves to the NBA, he's unlikely to have the ball much either, but he projects to be an all-around glue guy who can help on both ends. best fits As with Isaac Okoro, Portland (#16) could be a nice landing spot for a solid wing player. And while New Orleans (#13) has a lot of athleticism already, it never hurts to have another viable wing. They tended to play small at the SG-SF spot, which hurt their defense overall. Playing Green could help them when they slide Brandon Ingram over to the 4 and Zion Williamson at the 5. worst fits I don't see many "bad" fits for Josh Green on the board, but you'd prefer that he went to a team that intended to make him a part of the future. Minnesota (#17) may not be able to do that if they already have Jarrett Culver and Josh Okogie. Brooklyn (#19) may not be looking for long-term projects since they're in a "win now" mode. (14) PG Tyrell Terry, Stanford Tyrell Terry is rocketing up draft boards on account of his stellar shooting ability (41% from 3, 89% from the line) and his better-than-expected measurement of 6'3". It's only natural that pundits would start comparing him to stud shooters like Steph Curry. That said, not every stud shooter is Steph Curry. Some are Seth Curry. Some are Quinn Cook. There's a slight chance Terry breaks out as a good starter, but there's a better than average chance he peaks as a rotational player instead. Still, he should be an asset to a team as a spacer, particularly if they run their offense through a playmaking forward (like a LeBron James). And in case you're wondering, no he is NOT related to Jason Terry, although some of their skill sets do overlap as scoring guards with deep range. best fits If we presume that Tyrell Terry can be a Seth (not Steph) type player, then adding him to Dallas (#18) makes sense. He can develop behind Seth for a year or two as he gains weight, and then help complement Luka Doncic as a spacer after that. Similarly, he makes sense for Philadelphia (#21) as well. We'd still lock Ben Simmons into the starting PG role, but Terry could play alongside him in lineups or be used as a sparkplug off the bench. worst fits Teams that may be eyeing Tyrell Terry as a surefire starter will have to be careful. For example, Phoenix (#10) needs an heir apparent for Ricky Rubio, but a Terry + Devin Booker combo may be problematic on the defensive end. Some other teams -- Brooklyn (#19) and Denver (#22) -- already have sharpshooter guards, so they don't have as strong of a need for this type of player. (15) PF Aleksej Pokusevski, Serbia We mentioned that LaMelo Ball may be the biggest boom/bust prospect in the class, likening him to gambling on Roulette. Enter Aleksej Pokusevski. "Gambling" may not even be doing it justice. This is like risking your family fortune on a bag of magic beans. But hey, that worked for Jack, and it could work for an NBA team as well. I have a friend who works in coaching who raved about Pokusevski and considers him a top 10 prospect overall. After all, this is a legit 7'0" player with true perimeter skills. Playing for Olympiacos' development team, he averaged 16.7 points, 12.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes. He hasn't even turned 19 years old yet, giving him an enormous amount of upside. Still, he scares the hell out of me. He's listed at 7'0" and 200 pounds, with narrow shoulders that make you doubt how much weight he'll be able to carry in the long term. His body type doesn't remind you of any current NBA forwards; it reminds you of two kids wearing a trenchcoat. All in all, Pokusevski seems like a great prospect to invest in, presuming you don't have to withdraw from the bank until 2023 or 2024. To that end, teams should only consider them if they feel confident in their long-term job security. best fits If the goal is to send Aleksej Pokusevski to a good, stable organization, then you can't do much better than San Antonio (#11). Even if Gregg Popovich retires from coaching, R.C. Buford should be around to help the next coach (Becky Hammon? Will Hardy? R.C.'s son Chase?). And if the goal is to find a good stable GM, Sam Presti and Oklahoma City (#25) would be a great home as they prepare for a long-term rebuild. worst fits Orlando (#15) always values length, but they have limited space left in the frontcourt and limited leg room left on that poor charter plane. I wasn't kidding when I said this post was "overly" long. The rest of the top 20 got cut off because of a length limit. I'll try to include them in the comment section.
Hit piece on Darryl. Other GMs are altruistic, for the game and the players, would never trade a player to get ahead /s Part 1: Daryl Morey, Rafael Stone, and the exploding Rockets “The single raindrop never feels responsible for the flood.” Dec 29 Below is the first half of a story just published to TrueHoop subscribers. To read the whole thing: Subscribe now By HENRY ABBOTT and YARON WEITZMAN SportsCenter @SportsCenter James Harden was asked if he feels better about his situation with the Rockets now than he did before he arrived at camp. "Next question." December 21st 2020 Daryl Morey changed NBA basketball by replacing fragile human assessments with something more calculated. He measured everything and ultimately valued different players, coaches, and styles of play—leading to many unusual bets. For the most part, time has proven him to be brilliant: His Rockets won more than 60 percent of their games and routinely made it deep into the playoffs. If there has been a knock against Morey, it’s that he’s lucid on creating angles and closing deals, but a little blind on things like human feelings and building trust. It has long been discussed as a “lack of chemistry,” but to many who have lived it, the shortcoming feels more profound. “Daryl Morey” says one NBA source who has known him for more than a decade, “ruins lives.” If there’s a “Game of Thrones” harshness to Morey’s Rockets tenure, it is coming full circle now on a team struggling to care enough about each other to function. Billionaire Tilman Fertitta has become the butt of jokes, and one person close to the team says he suspects they are on a path to become the worst team in the NBA. One of the team’s two best players from last season—Russell Westbrook—has already gotten himself traded. The other, James Harden, is making news almost daily for tearing at the fabric of the team by requesting a trade, breaking COVID rules, and reportedly throwing a ball at a young teammate. The team’s struggle with COVID protocols meant they are the only NBA team to date that couldn’t field sufficient players for a game—their season opener had to be postponed. But there’s a deeper story of the Rockets’ infusion of callousness. Daryl Morey moved to Houston in 2006, as the Rockets’ assistant GM. Like many well-to-do Houstonians, Daryl and Ellen Morey purchased a large house—theirs was near Buffalo Bayou, a drainage artery that runs away from reservoirs west of downtown. Then it started pouring. Eight to ten inches of rain flooded more than 3,000 homes in 2006. Hurricane Ike battered nearby Galveston and parts of Houston a couple of years later. In April 2009, several thousand more houses flooded, especially along Buffalo Bayou. A house in a flood zone wants constant care and attention. Before the rain there is the upgrading and maintaining of pumps, valves, and drainage. The storms bring bouts of stress: sandbags, generators, power outages, and mucky cleanup. A few years in, the Moreys—hardly sentimental people—divorced houses altogether. They would face rain storms from a high rise in the Memorial City neighborhood. Once ubers became ubiquitous and readily available, Morey essentially quit cars, too—telling the Wall Street Journal driving was a poor use of his time. (Years later on the Rich Eisen show he explained, “I’m on my phone too much, it’s just too dangerous. For the sake of humanity.”) And besides, many days Morey didn’t need a car at all. Another employee, general counsel Rafael Stone, lived nearby and was happy to drive Morey to work. Morey and Stone got along fine. One Rockets employee at the time remembers them as “best friends.” In a recent Zoom press conference, Stone made a passing comment about Morey damaging his dash board with a foot on a morning commute. “Daryl and I are extremely different people,” Stone added. “We worked well together and became friends because we’re from very different perspectives but oftentimes ended up at the exact same point.” One of Stone’s best friends, Andre Burrell, remembers Stone saying that “Daryl was really cool to him and took him under his wing, that he was getting all sorts of insights.” Both were hired by then-team president George Postolos to bring a certain business acumen to a franchise that had long been defined by the well-liked but hardly cutting-edge Carroll Dawson. A year into Morey’s time in Houston, Dawson was shuffled into a consultant role to make room for Morey to become general manager. It was an agreement Morey secured from then-team governor Leslie Alexander. The Rockets moved on from Dawson as easily as Morey moved on from houses and cars. That was another part of what fused Stone and Morey—an appreciation for the cold transactional nature of things. Many dream of running an NBA team. It’s a little cutthroat, at times. Some college freshmen arrive at school unsure of what they want from their lives. Rafael Stone was not one of those kids. Chris Jones first met Stone back in the fall of 1990. They were freshmen basketball players for Williams College, a Division III liberal arts school in leafy Williamstown, Mass. Even then, Jones—who would go on to live with Stone for three years—could tell that Stone was different. “Raf had his life planned out,” he says. “He was going to play basketball, then go to law school, then he hoped to one day be involved with an NBA team.” Stone grew up in Seattle. His father was a corporate lawyer who had starred at point guard for the University of Washington. This was the path Stone intended to follow. He played the same position and had many of the same dreams. “He was very quick and very savvy,” says Robert Williams, another former teammate, roommate, and longtime friend, “and he looked to shoot first.” He loved basketball, both playing and watching his hometown Sonics. He took the craft seriously but he spent most of his free time studying for his LSATs. He applied to the law schools at Harvard, Stanford, and Yale “because he wanted to get into the three best ones,” says Andre Burrell, another former roommate and longtime friend. All three schools accepted Stone. He chose Stanford. From there he landed a job at the New York City-based corporate law firm Dewey Ballantine. Stone has remained in touch with his roommates in the three decades since. They communicate via text chains, monthly calls, and (like everyone else during the pandemic) Zoom sessions. His friends describe him as fiercely loyal, the type of person who, Jones says, “can come off a bit stand-offish at times, especially if you don’t know him, but once he brings you into his orbit, he’ll do anything for you.” For Jones, a story comes to mind, “one that gets to the heart of who Raf is.” Jones got married in 1999. The next day his in-laws held a reception at their home. The party lasted a few hours. After everyone left, Stone approached Jones’ mother-in-law. “He said, ‘Hey, I’d like to help clean this all up,’” Jones recalls. “Every time I bring up his name, they talk about that.” Burrell recalls a different story, one he believes shows that Stone was always destined for a high-profiled gig. A few years after Stone had joined Dewey Ballantine, both he and Burrell were in Ohio for an event. They went out for drinks one night and, as these things often go, used the time to discuss their respective futures and careers. “He was always really ambitious,” Burrell says, and that night he recalls Stone talking about how he “wanted something different, that he wanted more.” Stone wound up making partner in 2005, at the age of 32. A week later, according to The Houston Chronicle, he quit. The Rockets had offered him the position of general counsel. He called his friends to share the news. “He said it was the chance to live his dream,” Jones says. To Alexander and Postolos, Morey offered vastly more strategic thinking. Much has been made of Morey’s role in basketball’s analytics revolution—leading to an emphasis on 3-pointers and identifying undervalued players from Shane Battier to P.J. Tucker. The team made a lot of trades and won a lot of games. In baseball, the appearance of advanced analytics is called “Moneyball.” It’s about a lot of things—seeing the strike zone, fielding with range—but, no surprise, it’s also about money. Morey entered the NBA as a consultant, advising Celtics ownership on the bottom line. His annual conference takes place at MIT’s business school. A lot of the panels are about maximizing ticket revenue or gambling analytics. NBA lifers who grew up in gymnasiums are aware that, as a boss, Morey is thinking deal-first. Many serious basketball professionals have felt swept aside by the floodwaters of Morey’s strategy. Morey’s crowning Rockets accomplishment was to collect sufficient picks and players to land James Harden in a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Instead of tanking, the Rockets stayed competitive while scraping together trade assets through years of incremental moves that have been compared to those of a Wall Street arbitrage trader. Instead of commodities, though, the Rockets were dealing people, not all of whom relished the process. FiveThirtyEight reports that, over his time running the Rockets, Morey made more trades than any GM (other than his longtime deputy Sam Hinkie, who went on to run the 76ers). Morey’s very first trade was for Jackie Butler and a pick. The pick became Luis Scola, a great Rockets success story. But Butler was cut before playing a game and never played again. Like every NBA player, he has feelings and an agent. There were many Jackie Butlers. Morey sent 72 players packing over his tenure. One rival executive says he has come to avoid calling Morey with trade offers, for fear they will leak to the media. Public pressure might help Morey gain leverage to complete a deal. But the leverage comes at the expense of upsetting both organizations’ stability as players, agents, coaches, and families stress about the future. At some point, Morey figured out a money-saving trick: Almost every NBA coach has a contract that ends in June. That’s when coaching staffs tend to be built for the upcoming season, and that’s when an in-demand assistant like Elston Turner or Jeff Bzdelik might become expensive thanks to the magic of competing offers. Morey’s solution? Rockets assistant coaches were given deals that ended in August, when the rest of the league’s coaching jobs were filled. With nowhere else to go, they didn’t bargain too hard. Last season, Rockets coaches did some back-of-the-envelope calculations and came away believing they were perhaps the 29th- or 30th-highest paid staff. Morey, it has been reported, made $8 million a year by the end of his time in Houston. The Rockets and their fans once romanticized Hakeem Olajuwon or Tracy McGrady. For a while, in the Morey years, it seemed like the new administration would substitute Shane Battier as a favorite. In 2009, Michael Lewis published the essential story of basketball’s Moneyball revolution, called the “no stats all-star,” about Battier. Battier’s geeky mind was a godsend to Morey. Unlike most players, Battier loved Morey’s fat packets of stats and used the intelligence to become a defender who knew all the percentages. Battier solved the essential conundrum of the advanced stats revolution: How do you get the players on board? “It’s so great having Shane on the team,” Morey said in the aisle of one of his early conferences. They talked about everything. When Ron Artest was new to the team, Battier was the one who advised Morey about how to talk to him. The forward came to be so associated with advanced analytics that by the time of the 2011 conference, a giant image of Battier (in a Rockets uniform, guarding Kobe Bryant) was the backdrop of the conference’s main stage. What made it less romantic was that not two weeks before the conference, Morey had traded Battier to the Grizzlies for some draft picks and Hasheem Thabeet.
The next Detroit: The catastrophic collapse of Atlantic City
With the closure of almost half of Atlantic City's casinos, Newark set to vote on gambling and casinos or racinos in almost every state, it seems as if the reasons for the very existence of Atlantic City are in serious jeopardy. Israel Joffe Atlantic City, once a major vacation spot during the roaring 20s and 1930s, as seen on HBOs Boardwalk Empire, collapsed when cheap air fare became the norm and people had no reason to head to the many beach town resorts on the East Coast. Within a few decades, the city, known for being an ‘oasis of sin’ during the prohibition era, fell into serious decline and dilapidation. New Jersey officials felt the only way to bring Atlantic City back from the brink of disaster would be to legalize gambling. Atlantic City’s first casino, Resorts, first opened its doors in 1978. People stood shoulder to shoulder, packed into the hotel as gambling officially made its way to the East Coast. Folks in the East Coast didn't have to make a special trip all the way to Vegas in order to enjoy some craps, slots, roulette and more. As time wore on, Atlantic City became the premier gambling spots in the country. While detractors felt that the area still remained poor and dilapidated, officials were quick to point out that the casinos didn't bring the mass gentrification to Atlantic City as much as they hoped but the billions of dollars in revenue and thousands of jobs for the surrounding communities was well worth it. Atlantic City developed a reputation as more of a short-stay ‘day-cation’ type of place, yet managed to stand firm against the 'adult playground' and 'entertainment capital of the world' Las Vegas. Through-out the 1980s, Atlantic City would become an integral part of American pop culture as a place for east coast residents to gamble, watch boxing, wrestling, concerts and other sporting events. However in the late 1980s, a landmark ruling considered Native-American reservations to be sovereign entities not bound by state law. It was the first potential threat to the iron grip Atlantic City and Vegas had on the gambling and entertainment industry. Huge 'mega casinos' were built on reservations that rivaled Atlantic City and Vegas. In turn, Vegas built even more impressive casinos. Atlantic City, in an attempt to make the city more appealing to the ‘big whale’ millionaire and billionaire gamblers, and in effort to move away from its ‘seedy’ reputation, built the luxurious Borgata casino in 2003. Harrah’s created a billion dollar extension and other casinos in the area went through serious renovations and re-branded themselves. It seemed as if the bite that the Native American casinos took out of AC and Vegas’ profits was negligible and that the dominance of those two cities in the world of gambling would remain unchallenged. Then Macau, formally a colony of Portugal, was handed back to the Chinese in 1999. The gambling industry there had been operated under a government-issued monopoly license by Stanley Ho's Sociedade de Turismo e Diversões de Macau. The monopoly was ended in 2002 and several casino owners from Las Vegas attempted to enter the market. Under the one country, two systems policy, the territory remained virtually unchanged aside from mega casinos popping up everywhere. All the rich ‘whales’ from the far east had no reason anymore to go to the United States to spend their money. Then came the biggest threat. As revenue from dog and horse racing tracks around the United States dried up, government officials needed a way to bring back jobs and revitalize the surrounding communities. Slot machines in race tracks started in Iowa in 1994 but took off in 2004 when Pennsylvania introduced ‘Racinos’ in an effort to reduce property taxes for the state and to help depressed areas bounce back. As of 2013, racinos were legal in ten states: Delaware, Louisiana, Maine, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia with more expected in 2015. Tracks like Delaware Park and West Virginia's Mountaineer Park, once considered places where local degenerates bet on broken-down nags in claiming races, are now among the wealthiest tracks around, with the best races. The famous Aqueduct race track in Queens, NY, once facing an uncertain future, now possesses the most profitable casino in the United States. From June 2012 to June 2013, Aqueduct matched a quarter of Atlantic City's total gaming revenue from its dozen casinos: $729.2 million compared with A.C.'s $2.9 billion. It has taken an estimated 15 percent hit on New Jersey casino revenue and climbing. And it isn't just Aqueduct that's taking business away from them. Atlantic City's closest major city, Philadelphia, only 35-40 minutes away, and one of the largest cities in America, now has a casino that has contributed heavily to the decline in gamers visiting the area. New Jersey is the third state in the U.S. to have authorized internet gambling. However, these online casinos are owned and controlled by Atlantic City casinos in an effort to boost profits in the face of fierce competition. California, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and Texas are hoping to join Delaware, Nevada, New Jersey and the U.S. Virgin Islands in offering online gambling to their residents. With this in mind, it seems the very niche that Atlantic City once offered as a gambling and entertainment hub for east coast residents is heading toward the dustbin of history. Time will tell if this city will end up like Detroit. However, the fact that they are losing their biggest industry to major competition, much like Detroit did, with depressed housing, casinos bankrupting/closing and businesses fleeing , it all makes Atlantic City’s fate seem eerily similar.
I spent the whole of last week reading up on the AS Roma takeover by the Friedkin Group. What follows is a brief essay I wrote up over the weekend. What do you think?
In 1969, Thomas Hoyt Friedkin, signed a franchise deal with Toyota to distribute their automobile vehicles and parts in the Houston area of Texas. The company was called the Gulf States Toyota Distributors. Three years later, in 1972, the company employed 35 associates and had sold over 5000 Toyota cars and trucks through 14 dealerships. Since then, it has accounted for over 13% of all Toyota sales in the United States across the five states of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas. The Gulf States Toyota Distributors is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Friedkin Group, which is now led by Thomas Friedkin’s son, Daniel. The Friedkin Group now encompasses a consortium of companies across many industries - automotive, hospitality, entertainment, and sports. On 17th August 2020, Italian football club AS Roma announced that it had been acquired in a €591million deal with the Friedkin Group. This takeover brought an end to the 8-year reign of the former Boston-based club owner James Pallotta, who took over the club in August of 2012. The investment was made via a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) - Romulus and Remus Investments LLC - a company incorporated under the laws of the state of Delaware in the United States. This takeover meant that the Friedkin Group now owned 86.6% of the club owning a total of 544,468,535 at the price of €0.1165 per share. The remaining 13.4% of the club’s share capital is publicly owned, with the Friedkin Group initiating a mandatory tender offer upon these publicly-owned shares. Stumbling Blocks In the semi-annual Financial Report released by AS Roma for the 2019-20 financial year, the Giallorossi earned €94.641 million as its income. This is approximately €40 million less than this time last year. As for the total costs incurred by the club during this time, there was a slight decrease from last year dropping from €136 million to €123 million. Part of the reason for this loss in revenue was the dissolution of the agreement AS Roma had with their training kit sponsor Betway. In July 2018, the Italian government had passed the “Dignity Decree” - a legislation that prohibits the advertising of gambling logos, forcing the club to terminate their relationship with the betting company. In the first 9 months of the 2019/20 financial season, the Giallorossi sustained losses totaling €126 million, with the total debt at €280 million. This is not a one-off situation either. Roma has been struggling financially for quite some time now. For instance, revenue dropped down €17m to €236m, mainly due to less progress in the Champions League. Television revenue also went down 13% to €145m. So did matchday revenue, which dropped 14% to €34m. The good news is that commercial revenue was up €10m to €55m, and revenues from player sales went up 19% from €320m to €380m. The Road Ahead The revenue highlights show that it’s important for the Giallorossi to qualify for the Champions League and go a step ahead. The 2018/19 revenue of €236m was greatly influenced by revenues directly received from the Champions League, earning the club almost €66m. This was not as much as last year’s revenue though, with Roma earning €98m from the Champions League. This is part of the reason that the Friedkin Group took over the capital-based club. The new Board of Directors includes a mix of astute businessmen and financial lawyers who bring the necessary expertise to run the club. For instance, besides the Chairman Dan Freidkin, the BOD includes people like Marc Watts, who is President of The Friedkin Group. Partner at taxation law firm Salvini and Partners, Ines Gandini also joins the BOD bringing her years of taxation experience into the club. In addition, Professor of legal financial regulations Mirella Pellegrini also joins the BOD, as does Eric Williamson, who is the VP of the Friedkin Business Development Group. There is also on the BOD Benedetta Navarra, who represents Unicredit - one of AS Roma’s creditors. A new Executive committee has also been formed consisting of Dan Friedkin, Ryan Friedkin, Marc Watts, Eric Williamson with Guido Fienga as CEO. Fienga had started working with AS Roma under the Pallotta regime as the Strategy and Media Director in 2013, before being appointed as Chief Operating Officer last year, where he handled the day-to-day operations of the club. He will now be assisted by Ryan Friedkin, son of Daniel Friedkin, who has since moved to Italy and will be running the club’s day to day operations with Fienga. One of the criticisms leveled against Pallotta was the lack of progress in building the much-needed new stadium for the club. This is something that the new management will have to take on. In pursuing the Stadio Della Roma project, they will have to work closely with city Mayor Virginia Raggi - who is known to be on good terms with CEO Guido Fienga. So far, the moves made by the Friedkin Group look good on paper. They will also be getting a helping hand from the Pallotta group until the end of December to sort out their financial woes. The arrival of Pedro and Jordan Veretout will add much-needed firepower to their on-field performances too. Whether this acquisition is something the AS Roma fans will remember with fond memories, only time will tell PS: If you're reading this far, please consider subscribing to Your Weekend Beer - a weekend newsletter on the business of football. PPS: You can read the full issue (Essay + Non essay) here
Estranged for 17 Years, Considering Allowing Limited Contact
Hello, everyone. I have reached the point in my life where I have now been estranged from my mother for a longer period of time than when I had a relationship with her. I cut her off shortly before I turned 17 so many years ago, and now 17 years later I am 34, married, and with two children. First, I'd like to share my story, which starts in the city of Dallas one July morning when I was born. My mother and father had married when they found out they were having me, but that marriage only lasted until my first birthday. Following the divorce, my father joined the US Navy and fought in Desert Storm, while my mother spirited me away first to Arizona for a year, and finally to Las Vegas, NV to attend college at UNLV. Shortly thereafter, I was three years old with a step-father and a new baby half-sister, and two more half-brothers would come in the coming years. My earliest memory living in Las Vegas also happens to be the only happy memory I had of living there. When I was five, my dad took leave and visited me, and we spent the whole week together including a trip to Circus Circus. It was a theme that would be constant for the rest of my child -- the only times I ever felt happy was when I was not in Las Vegas with my mother and the new family that she started. Even from early on, I never felt like I belonged with the family that I was living in. I had a different father who lived on the opposite coast, and I was treated far differently as if I was an inconvenient child that nobody knew what to do with. I was not my step-father's son, and unlike my sibling my interactions with him usually ended up explosive in temperament, including having objects thrown at me, with my mother doing little to stop it. In fact, my mother often reinforced the behavior which only led to fights and arguments with her as well, fights which would only subside when my dad calmed me down over the phone. While my half-siblings did like me and looked up to me, I also never felt as strong a bond with them as they did with each other, or with their parents. I had my own room, and my own stuff, while they had to share among themselves. They received care and affection from both of their parents, while I had a tumultuous relationship with the one we shared and a long distance relationship with the one we did not. When my step-father's family came over, it was my half-siblings who were showered with attention while I was just the other child from their in-law's failed marriage. From very early on in my childhood it was clear to me that I did not belong with this family. Then there was the effect that Las Vegas has on many adults living there. I remember being nine years old witnessing screaming arguments between my mother and step-father. You see, my step-father had a gambling addiction where he would receive his paycheck and swiftly deposit it into the slot machines at the grocery store hoping for a payout that would never come. There was also the work schedules. Since Las Vegas is a 24/7 town, it is not unusual for people to work odd shifts including evenings and into the wee hours of the night. I was often left to entertain myself while my mother was asleep all day with the blackout curtains drawn. As a means of coping, I applied myself academically at school because it was something that I actually felt that I could do well. Unfortunately, my July birthday meant that I was always the youngest kid in all of my classes and that, coupled with my small frame, meant that I was often picked on and bullied with nobody at home that I thought would really support me. The only times that I ever felt happy were when I flew to Dallas for the summer to visit my grandparents and the rest of my dad's side of the family, and my dad would always organize his leave to meet me there too. I have several cousins who are close to my age living there, and I have many fond memories of summer pool parties every Sunday afternoon at my grandparent's house. I looked forward to flying out every summer because I felt like it was where I belonged. At nine years old, shortly after finishing the fourth grade, was when I hit my first breaking point with my mother. I don't remember at all what we were fighting about, but it became so intense that it ended with my mother packing away all of my things and sending me to live with my dad within the week. I was that child that she didn't know what to do with and she just sent me away, and I was thrilled. My dad had just been stationed in Oklahoma City for shore duty, a mere three hour drive from Dallas, and I would live with him for the next three years through fifth, sixth, and seventh grades. The change was great for me, and I think that those three years were the golden years of my early childhood. While my dad does not speak much, and he occasionally had to leave me with a babysitter when he was on duty, with him I felt like I was listened to and that I belonged. We often took weekend trips to Dallas and I developed a strong bond with my grandparents and all of my cousins. I remember him taking me camping and fishing, teaching me how to shoot a gun, letting my twelve year old self drive the car on some old country roads, building a go-kart for me to drive around the neighborhood, and all kinds of experiences that I never had in Las Vegas. My school life was much better, too, and I had a good group of friends at the time. My relationship with my mother was limited to phone calls from time to time and brief summer trips to Las Vegas. Ironically, fate made the phone calls very rare when our WebTV internet service ended up charging up an $1800 phone bill leading our phone to be disconnected for over a year. Since it was a bit of a hike to walk to the convenience store to call my mother from the pay phone, it happened less frequently and that is probably a good thing as she was also going through her second divorce while I was living in Oklahoma. Unfortunately, my time with my dad came to an end when his shore duty tour ended and he was assigned to an aircraft carrier that was about to deploy. In the eighth grade, I moved back to Las Vegas to live with my mother. At the time, she was dating another guy who had two kids of his own, and they had moved in. My half-siblings were living with their father as he had the family support network in Las Vegas whereas my mother did not. All of the same problems that we had in early childhood existed now, except with a new guy in the house and a new set of kids that I had no bond with whatsoever. I was going to a new school, too, but it was not a very good school and I was always isolated and bullied there. I didn't even make it through the school year before I hit my second breaking point. Our constant fighting probably led to her boyfriend from breaking things off with her, and I always felt like she was blaming me for it. One day, we got into an argument so intense that she drove me in the middle of the night to admit me into a mental hospital where I would spend two weeks being told how much of a terrible child that I was until I would admit that to the doctor and my mother in a consultation. It was easily the most humiliating experience I had ever gone through in my life. A month after I had been discharged I was given the option to move in with my dad in Virginia Beach, VA, and I took the opportunity without hesitation. During that year, my dad married the woman who he had been dating. She already had a toddler child out of wedlock and was expecting a child by the time that I moved in. It was a little weird, because here I was a 14 year old entering high school with a step-mother who was 23 years old, but I was just so happy to move away from Las Vegas and the toxic relationship that I had with my birth mother. My poor relationship with my step-father before, however, certainly affected me in my relationship with my step-mom. She was young and unfamiliar with what to do with a teenager step-son who is not that much younger than her, and I was conditioned by previous experiences to be distrusting of her. We had some growing pains during my teenage years for sure, but nothing ever got as bad as what I experienced in Las Vegas. I also formed more of a bond with my toddler step-sister and the two half-brothers that would be born because I was trusted with the responsibility of helping to care for them as infants given our large age gap, and I do believe that made a difference. While there may have been times that I felt that maybe I didn't belong in this new family, I think that was remedied by my dad and step-mom keeping me involved and trusting me. I also felt like I had direction in my high school years. I had joined the school's NJROTC unit, made some close friends that I still talk to today, and really enjoyed those years. I spent my freshman and sophomore years in Virginia Beach, and I felt like I had a clear path forward into adulthood all laid out for me. Unfortunately, that all came to an end when my dad was deployed again during my junior year. With my dad being out to sea for nine months, my step-mom wanted to move back to Georgia where her family could help to take care of my step-sister and my first infant half-brother, a decision which I fully understand. My mother decided that it would be best for me to move to Las Vegas to live with her, however, and I didn't have a say in the matter. During this move, she couldn't even be bothered to fly me like during past moves, and I embarked on a three day Greyhound bus adventure across the country where I feared I was going to be kidnapped or raped at any moment. to live with my mother in Las Vegas. This time I was not only living with my mother, I was also living with her mother and drunkard brother because she could not afford to live on her own. I wanted to just emancipate myself right then and there, and I would have tried to do so if I would have qualified to do so. The only difference was that we did not fight as often, it was more of a silent treatment. She often worked all night, or went out to party and go to concerts, and slept all day with the blackout curtains drawn anyways. I have memories of her being dumped by some guy and then closing herself in her room to eat bowls of straight powdered sugar, and I felt nothing but shame that she was my mother. As before, I had no friends in Las Vegas although my junior year at school wasn't as bad as previous experiences in earlier childhood. I felt isolated and alone, and was just biding my time to move back with my dad for my senior year. When I finally moved back, taking another greyhound bus across the country, my last works to her were, "I don't ever want to see or speak to you again." and for 17 years I had followed through on that. She certainly tried to contact me at first. All through my senior year she tried calling the house frequently, but I never accepted the phone call. When I was 19 I had moved out on my own and also moved back to Dallas, so she would try to reach me through my grandparents with no success. For the first four years I was also inundated with unwanted letters from her trying to justify herself through emotional sob stories, never once acknowledging what she had done to push me away. She even tried to show up at my work one day, an event that ended with me denying knowing her and having security escort her off premises. Eventually the attempts to recontact stopped until about five years in it was as if she did not exist to me. In the time that I was estranged from my mother, I had graduated high school, obtained my drivers license, joined the US Navy and served for six years, obtained a college degree all while serving, met my beautiful spouse, and had two children (4 years old and 4 months old), and got my dream job as an engineer living and working in Japan. I do not regret walking out on her at all because she was not a positive influence in my life at all and I just feel like she would have kept me held back. My only regret in cutting off contact was actually cutting off my half-siblings as well. While I never felt like I belonged with them, they did look up to me dearly and I do feel like I have betrayed them in a cruel way. I just could not allow myself to have any ties to my mother or to the city of Las Vegas, because my time there was too much to bear, so my relationship with them ended up being a casualty of my fallout with my mother. I stalk them online from time to time, though, and I am happy that they are doing well. My half-sister followed her dream and became an event photographer for a local radio station in Las Vegas, my older half-brother just finished his Associates in accounting and got picked up for a pretty good job also in Las Vegas, and my younger half-brother is just figuring out his early 20s. I'm sincerely happy that they are all doing well and I am sorry for any pain that I caused them from severing ties with our mother. That brings me to the present day, where I have just turned 34 years old meaning that I have been apart from my mother for longer than I have had any association with her, and I am considering restoring limited contact with her for a few reasons. First, and this is the main reason, I had checked in on her FaceBook page and it seems like she has become a different person than I remembered before. Her posts are generally positive and she is often spending time with her other three adult children. I looked through her entire Facebook feed to 2008 and I did not find a single post where she laid out the self-victimization sob stories that were in the letters she sent when we first broke contact. When she did mention me, it was her posting a message wishing me a happy birthday every year where she apologizes for hurting me and is praying that I would recontact her one day, or an old photograph with her commentary on what was a happy time to her, or posts where she is expressing happiness for what I have achieved in my life when she hears about them. It actually makes me cry because I believe she is actually sincere since these kinds of posts go back for the last nine years and I never had any idea. Second, while I resent what she has done to me in my childhood, now that I am a parent myself I can appreciate the impossible situation she was in given that appeasing me may very well have been alienating to her other three children. There were times when I treated her unfairly, and I am willing to take responsibility and apologize for those times if she is also willing to take responsibility and apologize for how her actions hurt me. Finally, I do not want to deny my children the right to get to know their grandmother, especially since she seems to have changed over the past 17 years. I am considering extending an olive branch and allowing her to visit her grandchildren here in Japan as soon as all of the travel restrictions are lifted. If she has changed for the better, and is willing to take responsibility for her actions, and is willing to come to us to meet, then I can see our relationship being reconciled. To be honest, though, I am scared to reach out. I got her cell phone number and put it in my phone, but I have not yet found the courage to hit dial. I also fear what my half-siblings must think of me, but I do think it is finally the time to make the move and try to reconcile. Thank you if you took the time to read my story. Mostly it helps me to just get it all written down, but I hope it is a change since there are so few stories on this subreddit of estranged adult children actually talking about reaching the point where reconciliation may be an option.
A open letter from a massive RDR2 fan about RDO , in hopes that someone from R* will take notice
RDR2 might be my favorite game of all time. I’ve played through the story mode 3 times ( currently working on my 4th play through with no mini map , free aim , and trying to 100%) I’ve bought the ultimate edition for both Xbox and PS4 , according to my Xbox I’ve put 977 hours and 54 minutes into your masterpiece. I love this game and it means the world to me but the online portion is an absolute dumpster fire . The game sold 70 million copies yet R* treats it like it sold 2 million . I completely understand why they support GTA , but it’s like they don’t give a F that RDO is in the shape it’s in and there are people ready to open there wallets if they just make it worth playing . I don’t know who was in charge of RDO and it’s design but they need to be fired . There is literally nothing to do . Roles are fun for the 2 weeks it takes you to max it out then there is ZERO reason to go back to it , other then if you want to make a quick $ . You can’t interact with anything in the world , you can’t talk or acknowledge any NPC which makes you feel like your in a empty world ,the naturalist role conflicts with every other role in the game , your stuck with cripps who is a useless and annoying “Uncle “ type character , all the guns are basically the same , Emotes are stupid and complicated to do , the clothes and accessories are like something out of a 80’s drag queens production of “Oklahoma “ , your character doesn’t talk (which was fine in GTA 4’s online In 2008 but it’s 2020 . If it’s a memory issue at least let me respond by text dialogue choices ) , and most importantly, there is 0% of the cowboy role playing charm this game should 100% have as the bedrock of everything built into it . NO ONE said “I want to be the cowboy that studies animals “ or “the cowboy that finds a family’s lost coins “ or “I want to run a hunting business “ !!!!!! I want to be a outlaw who holds up trains and stage coaches, then goes off and hides out , daring the law to come after me , I want to be a “Texas Ranger “ going after other players who grief or those outlaws (player or AI ) that rob trains or banks , I want to be a rancher who teams up with other players or hires AI companions for a cattle drive across new Austin . I want to gamble , drink , hit on prostitutes tell 6 am then have to sober up and then have to face off with the local law/gang that runs the town at high noon for a shoot out on St denis Main Street , I want to fight Indians at fort Wallace , I want to blood fued with the odriscolls cause they killed my horse , I want to go duck hunting with my dog , I want to rob a bank with other players then have to shoot my way out of town while other players try and stop my gang ! None of those things are in this game (other then some half assed make believe version where it’s just you doing these things ) . Hell if I hold up a stage coach , I can’t even threaten them and tell them what I want to try and make it go smoother. You just pull out your gun and start blasting . I can’t believe how badly Rockstar , a company I trust and think very very highly of , has F’d up the online portion so badly . The only thing that’s more surprising is NO PRESS/MEDIA/Gaming news site are covering it or reporting on it . The only thing you saw in the last 7 months was reports of players dressing like clowns . And yes I completely understand there is a pandemic , but these problems started before the pandemic and even during the pandemic , GTA online got TONS of updates and content . R* , get your $#%+ together and save this game . Communicate with your fan base , be honest about what’s coming , even if you can’t put a date on it due to the pandemic , hire COMMUNITY MANAGERS for the biggest sub Reddit’s and Forums so people feel listened to and have someone to go to for answers and communication. Being all dark and secretive while your creating the amazing games you produce is awesome and half the fun of waiting for the next big R* game ! But after you release your game , being secretive and silent is super annoying and is honestly one of the things that makes me question if I want to continue giving you my $ ! Be better R*
An open letter to R* from a massive RDR2 fan in hopes someone reads it
RDR2 might be my favorite game of all time. I’ve played through the story mode 3 times ( currently working on my 4th play through with no mini map , free aim , and trying to 100%) I’ve bought the ultimate edition for both Xbox and PS4 , according to my Xbox I’ve put 977 hours and 54 minutes into your masterpiece. I love this game and it means the world to me but the online portion is an absolute dumpster fire . The game sold 70 million copies yet R* treats it like it sold 2 million . I completely understand why they support GTA , but it’s like they don’t give a F that RDO is in the shape it’s in and there are people ready to open there wallets if they just make it worth playing . I don’t know who was in charge of RDO and it’s design but they need to be fired . There is literally nothing to do . Roles are fun for the 2 weeks it takes you to max it out then there is ZERO reason to go back to it , other then if you want to make a quick $ . You can’t interact with anything in the world , you can’t talk or acknowledge any NPC which makes you feel like your in a empty world ,the naturalist role conflicts with every other role in the game , your stuck with cripps who is a useless and annoying “Uncle “ type character , all the guns are basically the same , Emotes are stupid and complicated to do , the clothes and accessories are like something out of a 80’s drag queens production of “Oklahoma “ , your character doesn’t talk (which was fine in GTA 4’s online In 2008 but it’s 2020 . If it’s a memory issue at least let me respond by text dialogue choices ) , and most importantly, there is 0% of the cowboy role playing charm this game should 100% have as the bedrock of everything built into it . NO ONE said “I want to be the cowboy that studies animals “ or “the cowboy that finds a family’s lost coins “ or “I want to run a hunting business “ !!!!!! I want to be a outlaw who holds up trains and stage coaches, then goes off and hides out , daring the law to come after me , I want to be a “Texas Ranger “ going after other players who grief or those outlaws (player or AI ) that rob trains or banks , I want to be a rancher who teams up with other players or hires AI companions for a cattle drive across new Austin . I want to gamble , drink , hit on prostitutes tell 6 am then have to sober up and then have to face off with the local law/gang that runs the town at high noon for a shoot out on St denis Main Street , I want to fight Indians at fort Wallace , I want to blood fued with the odriscolls cause they killed my horse , I want to go duck hunting with my dog , I want to rob a bank with other players then have to shoot my way out of town while other players try and stop my gang ! None of those things are in this game (other then some half assed make believe version where it’s just you doing these things ) . Hell if I hold up a stage coach , I can’t even threaten them and tell them what I want to try and make it go smoother. You just pull out your gun and start blasting . I can’t believe how badly Rockstar , a company I trust and think very very highly of , has F’d up the online portion so badly . The only thing that’s more surprising is NO PRESS/MEDIA/Gaming news site are covering it or reporting on it . The only thing you saw in the last 7 months was reports of players dressing like clowns . And yes I completely understand there is a pandemic , but these problems started before the pandemic and even during the pandemic , GTA online got TONS of updates and content . R* , get your $#%+ together and save this game . Communicate with your fan base , be honest about what’s coming , even if you can’t put a date on it due to the pandemic , hire COMMUNITY MANAGERS for the biggest sub Reddit’s and Forums so people feel listened to and have someone to go to for answers and communication. Being all dark and secretive while your creating the amazing games you produce is awesome and half the fun of waiting for the next big R* game ! But after you release your game , being secretive and silent is super annoying and is honestly one of the things that makes me question if I want to continue giving you my $ ! Be better R*
[Unresolved Murder] The 1954 death of John Henry Casteel - suicide or murder?
Let me start off by saying that this case is not one that you can find info on online. In fact, as far as law enforcement is concerned, there's no case here. I know about this because the deceased was my great-uncle. On May 28, 1954, the body of 19-year-old John Henry Casteel was found at his home in Sparks, Oklahoma. The death was ruled suicide by hanging by law enforcement. Except...no one in the family believes my great-uncle killed himself. Here's the thing. John Henry had gambling debts. Apparently he was involved with people he shouldn't have. Needless to say, the belief of my relatives, at least that of my father and grandmother, is that John Henry Casteel was killed because he didn't pay his gambling debts. LE did not believe this. The death was ruled a suicide. As far as I know, his death didn't even make the paper. Apologies if this case doesn't meet the rules for this sub, but I feel that a was-it-murder-or-was-it-suicide case like this shouldn't be relegated to just something family members whisper about in person. Here is the Find a Grave page for John Henry: https://www.findagrave.com/memorial/38169386/john-henry-casteel
Hello nba, tomorrow is the day we have all been waiting for: The NBA Trade Deadline. It’s such an exciting time for almost every team and every fan base, as some teams load up for a playoff run and others dump bad contracts and prepare their franchise for the future and embrace the tank. Either way, you gotta love last minute trades! With that in mind, I decided to look at all the trades made at the trade deadline from every season since 1986-87, and try to determine the most impactful trades, as well as other notable trades that may have been made on that day. Hope you guys enjoy!
2018-19 NBA Season (February 7, 2019)
Biggest Impact: The Toronto Raptors acquire Marc Gasol from the Mepmhis Grizzlies to fuel their NBA championship push
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Toronto Raptors
Memphis Grizzlies
Assets Sent
C.J. Miles, Jonas Valanciunas, Delon Wright, TOR 2024 2nd Round Pick
Marc Gasol
Assets Received
Marc Gasol
C.J. Miles, Jonas Valanciunas, Delon Wright, TOR 2024 2nd Round Pick
Other Notable Trades: The Sacramento Kings land Harrison Barnes from the Dallas Mavericks to fuel their second half playoff push
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Sacramento Kings
Dallas Mavericks
Assets Sent
Justin Jackson, Zach Randolph
Harrison Barnes
Assets Received
Harrison Barnes
Justin Jackson, Zach Randolph
Other Notable Trades: The Philadelphia 76ers deal former #1 overall pick Markelle Fultz to the Orlando Magic
Biggest Impact: The Timberwolves trade Steve Johnson to the SuperSonics
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Minnesota Timberwolves
Seattle SuperSonics
Assets Sent
Steve Johnson
Brad Sellers
Assets Received
Brad Sellers
Steve Johnson
Other Notable Trades: The Spurs acquire Uwe Blab from the Warriors ---|San Antonio Spurs|Golden State Warriors :--:|:--:|:--: Assets Sent|Chris Welp|Uwe Blab Assets Received|Uwe Blab|Chris Welp
1988-89 NBA Season (February 23, 1989)
Biggest Impact: The Knicks acquire Kiki Vandeweghe in a trade with the Trail Blazers
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Portland Trail Blazers
New York Knicks
Assets Sent
Kiki Vandewghe
1989 1st Round Pick (Byron Irvin)
Assets Received
1989 1st Round Pick (Byron Irvin)
Kiki Vandeweghe
Other Notable Trades: The Celtics trade Danny Ainge to the Kings
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Boston Celtics
Sacramento Kings
Assets Sent
Danny Ainge, Brad Lohaus
Joe Kleine, Ed Pinckney
Assets Received
Joe Kleine, Ed Pinckney
Danny Ainge, Brad Lohaus
1987-88 NBA Season (February 25, 1988)
Biggest Impact: The Cavaliers acquire Larry Nance from the Suns in a blockbuster trade
Legal Gambling Age In Oklahoma The legal age that a person must be in order to gamble in the state of Oklahoma is 18. It is a criminal offense to partake in any sort of organized gambling whilse under this age. Legal Online Gambling In Oklahoma Oklahoma’s gambling laws allow betting on horse racing and some full-fledged casinos under the Tribal-State Compact. Charitable games, bingo, and raffle prizes are also allowed. Oklahoma Gambling Statutes. The following table lists the specifics of Oklahoma’s gambling statutes. State gambling laws prohibit games, wagers, or bets that have outcomes that rely at least partially upon some element of chance. However, if a competition or game rewards prizes to winners based on skill, such as shooting competitions or car racing, then it is not considered gambling. (Some other restrictions in the law may still apply in order for these activities to be considered legal). Gambling Laws In Oklahoma. January 18, 2021 / All through the territory of Oklahoma, you’ll find numerous club and bingo lobbies run by different Indian clans. While these tasks completely agree to the tradition that must be adhered to, you may be astounded to realize that there are likewise an entire host of illicit administrators out there who endeavor to skirt around the law. Consequently ... Oklahoma has fairly strict laws when it comes to gambling. It is illegal to bet on any unlicensed games. Daily fantasy sports (DFS) operates in a grey area. Some states have ruled that the activity constitutes a form of gambling, while other states view DFS as a skill-based game. History of Gambling in Oklahoma. The Sooner State’s first legal gaming move started in 1916, when they banned all gambling. In 1983, the State Legislature passed the Oklahoma Horse Racing Act. This allowed state residents to participate in pari-mutuel betting at racetracks. The most impactful event in Oklahoma’s gambling history happened in 1988, Here are the basic gambling/ casino rules for the state of Oklahoma: What Is the Legal Gambling Age in Oklahoma? 18-21. The age range depends on the casino. Make sure to check the age requirements before visiting any Oklahoma casino. Can Anyone Open a Casino? No. The state mandated that the casinos in Oklahoma must be located on native lands and run by native tribes. This mandate is spelled out that native tribes have an exclusivity agreement with the state and pay 4-10% tax for ... Both the laws on the federal level, and Oklahoma gambling laws primarily make it highly illegal to engage in the business of running an unregulated gambling establishment or any situation where one party makes a profit by facilitating wagers. Many of the laws, especially those passed by the U.S. government, are meant to stunt organized crime and corruption while leaving social and recreational ... Online gambling is legal in Oklahoma as there are no laws in the state to suggest otherwise. The Oklahoma State Statutes do not once mention the Internet, and there is not a single section that outlines online gambling. The laws only pertain to the land-based gambling options that are regulated by the state. Oklahoma Gambling Crimes & Gaming Crimes. Gambling and Internet gambling are illegal in the United States, except in lawfully recognized Indian gaming facilities, certain gaming cruises or ships, and in states where gaming has been legalized (Nevada and South Dakota). While some gaming is permitted in Oklahoma, it is limited by statute. Except when gambling has been expressly permitted and regulated by law, you should consider that gambling is probably illegal. We represent those charged ...