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Gamestop Big Picture: The Short Singularity Pt 3 - WTF edition
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This entire post represents my personal views and opinions, and should not be taken as financial advice (or advice of any kind whatsoever). I encourage you to do your own research, take anything I write with a grain of salt, and hold me accountable for any mistakes you may catch. Also, full disclosure, I hold a net long position in GME, but my cost basis is very low (average ~$67--I have to admit, the drop today was too tasty so my cost basis went up from yesterday)/share with my later buys averaged in), and I'm using money I can absolutely lose. My capital at risk and tolerance for risk generally is likely substantially different than yours. In this post I will go a little further and speculate more than I'd normally do in a post due to the questions I've been getting, so fair warning, some of it might be very wrong. I suspect we'll learn some of the truth years from now when some investigative journalist writes a book about it. Thank you everyone for the comments and questions on the first and second post on this topic. Today was a study in the power of fear, courage, and the levers you can pull when you wield billions of dollars... Woops, excuse me. I'm sorry hedge fund guys... I meant trillions of dollars--I just briefly forget you control not just your own but a lot of other peoples' money too for a moment there. Also, for people still trading this on market-based rationale (as I am), it was a good day to measure the conviction behind your thesis. I like to think I have conviction, but in case you are somehow not yet familiar with the legend of DFV, you need to see these posts (fair warning, nsfw, and some may be offended/triggered by the crude language). The last two posts might be impressive, but you should follow it in chronological order and pay attention to the evolution of sentiment in the comments to experience true enlightenment. Anyway, I apologize, but this post will be very long--there's just a lot to unpack.
Pre-Market
Disclaimer: given yesterday's pre-market action I didn't even pay attention to the screen until near retail pre-market. I'm less confident in my ability to read what's going on in a historical chart vs the feel I get watching live, but I'll try. Early in the pre-market it looks to me like some momentum traders are taking profit, discounting the probability that the short-side will give them a deep discount later, which you can reasonably assume given the strategy they ran yesterday. If they're right they can sell some small volume into the pre-market top, wait for the hedge funds try to run the price back down, and then lever up the gains even higher buying the dip. Buy-side here look to me like people FOMOing and YOLOing in at any price to grab their slice of gainz, or what looks to be market history in the making. No way are short-side hedge funds trying to cover anything at these prices. Mark Cuban--well said! Free markets baby! Mohamed El-Erian is money in the bank as always. "upgrade in quality" on the pandemic drop was the best, clearest actionable call while most were at peak panic, and boy did it print. Your identifying the bubble as the excessive short (vs blaming retail activity) is money yet again. Also, The PAIN TRADE (sorry, later interview segment I only have on DVR, couldn't find on youtube--maybe someone else can)! The short attack starts, but I'm hoping no one was panicking this time--we've seen it before. Looks like the momentum guys are minting money buying the double dip into market open. CNBC, please get a good market technician to explain the market action. Buy-side dominance, sell-side share availability evaporating into nothing (look at day-by-day volume last few days), this thing is now at runaway supercritical mass. There is no changing the trajectory unless you can change the very fabric of the market and the rules behind it (woops, I guess I should have knocked on wood there). If you know the mechanics, what's happening in the market with GME is not mysterious AT ALL. I feel like you guys are trying to scare retail out early "for their own good" (with all sincerity, to your credit) rather than explain what's happening. Possibly you also fear that explaining it would equate to enabling/encouraging people to keep trying to do it inappropriately (possibly fair point, but at least come out and say that if that's the case). Outside the market, however...wow.
You Thought Yesterday Was Fear? THIS is Fear!
Ok short-side people, my hat is off to you. Just when I thought shouting fire in a locked theater was fear mongering poetry in motion, you went and took it to 11. What's even better? Yelling fire in a theater with only one exit. That way people can cause the financial equivalent of stampede casualties. Absolutely brilliant. Robin Hood disables buying of GME, AMC, and a few of the other WSB favorites. Other brokerages do the same. Even for people on 0% margin. Man, and here I thought I had seen it all yesterday. Side note: I will give a shout out to TD Ameritrade. You guys got erroneously lumped together with RH during an early CNBC segment, but you telegraphed the volatility risk management changes and gradually ramped up margin requirements over the past week. No one on your platform should have been surprised if they were paying attention. And you didn't stop anyone from trading their own money at any point in time. My account balance thanks you. I heard others may have had problems, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt given the DDOS attacks that were flyiing around Robin Hood. Seriously WTF. I'm sure it was TOTALLY coincidence that your big announcements happen almost precisely when what has to be one of the best and most aggressive short ladder attacks of all time starts painting the tape, what looked like a DDOS attack on Reddit's CDN infrastructure (pretty certain it was the CDN because other stuff got taken out at the same time too), and a flood of bots hit social media (ok, short-side, this last one is getting old). Taking out a large-scale cloud CDN is real big boy stuff though, so I wouldn't entirely rule out nation state type action--those guys are good at sniffing out opportunities to foment social unrest. Anyway, at this point, as the market dives, I have to admit I was worried for a moment. Not that somehow the short-side would win (hah! the long-side whales in the pond know what's up), but that a lot of retail would get hurt in the action. That concern subsided quite a bit on the third halt on that slide. But first... A side lesson on market orders Someone printed bonus bank big time (and someone lost--I feel your pain, whoever you are). During the face-ripping volatility my play money account briefly ascended to rarified heights of 7 figures. It took me a second to realize it, then another second to process it. Then, as soon as it clicked, that one, glorious moment in time was gone. What happened? During the insane chop of the short ladder attack, someone decided to sweep the 29 Jan 21 115 Call contracts, but they couldn't get a grip on the price, which was going coast to coast as IV blew up and the price was being slammed around. So whoever was trying to buy said "F it, MARKET ORDER" (i.e. buy up to $X,XXX,XXX worth of contracts at any price). This is referred to as a sweep if funded to buy all/most of the contracts on offer (HFT shops snipe every contract at each specific price with a shotgun of limit orders, which is far safer, but something only near-market compute resources can do really well). For retail, or old-tech pros, if you want all the contracts quickly, you drop a market order loaded with big bucks and see what you get... BUT, some clever shark had contracts available for the reasonable sum of... $4,400, or something around that. I was too stunned to grab a screencap. The buy market order swept the book clean and ran right into that glorious, nigh-obscene backstop limit. So someone got nearly $440,000 PER CONTRACT that was, at the time theoretically priced at around $15,000. $425,000 loss... PER CONTRACT. Maybe I'm not giving the buyer enough credit.. you can get sniped like that even if you try to do a safety check of the order book first, but, especially in low liquidity environments, if a HFT can peak into your order flow (or maybe just observes a high volume of sweeps occurring), they can end up front running your sweep, pick off the reasonable contracts, and slam a ridiculous limit sell order into place before your order makes it to the exchange. Either way, I hope that sweep wasn't loaded for bear into the millions. If so... OUCH. Someone got cleaned out. So, the lesson here folks... in a super high volatility, low-liquidity market, a market order will just run up the ladder into the first sell order it can find, and some very brutal people will put limit sells like that out there just in case they hit the jackpot. And someone did. If you're on the winning side, great. It can basically bankrupt you if you're on the losing side. My recommendation: Just don't try it. I wouldn't be surprised if really shady shenanigans were involved in this, but no way to know (normally that's crazy-type talk, but after today....peeking at order flow and sniping sweeps is one of the fastest, most financially devastating ways to bleed big long-side players, just sayin'). edit *so while I was too busy trying not to spit out my coffee to grab a screenshot, piddlesthethug was faster on the draw and captured this: https://imgur.com/gallery/RI1WOuu Ok, so I guess my in-the-moment mental math was off by about 10%. Man, that hurts just thinking about the guy who lost on that trade.* Back to the market action..
A Ray of Light Through the Darkness
So I was worried watching the crazy downward movement for two different reasons. On the one hand, I was worried the momentum pros would get the best discounts on the dip (I'll admit, I FOMO'd in too early, unnecessarily raising my cost basis). On the other hand, I was worried for the retail people on Robin Hood who might be bailing out into incredibly steep losses because they had only two options: Watch the slide, or bail. All while dealing with what looked to me like a broad-based cloud CDN outage as they tried to get info from WSB HQ, and wondering if the insta-flood of bot messages were actually real people this time, and that everyone else was bailing on them to leave them holding the bag. But I saw the retail flag flying high on the 3rd market halt (IIRC), and I knew most would be ok. What did I see, you ask? Why, the glorious $211.00 / $5,000 bid/ask spread. WSB Reddit is down? Those crazy mofos give you the finger right on the ticker tape. I've been asked many times in the last few hours about why I was so sure shorts weren't covering on the down move. THIS is how I knew. For sure. It's in the market data itself. editSo, there's feedback in the comments that this is likely more of a technical glitch. Man, at least it was hilarious in the moment. But also now I know maybe not to trust price updates when the spread between orders being posted is so wide. Maybe a technical limitation of TOS I'll admit, I tried to one-up those bros with a 4206.90 limit sell order, but it never made it through. I'm impressed that the HFT guys at the hedge fund must have realized really quickly what a morale booster that kind of thing would have been, and kept a lower backstop ask in place almost continuously from then on I'm sure others tried the same thing. Occasionally $1,000 and other high-dollar asks would peak through from time to time from then on, which told me the long-side HFTs were probably successfully sniping the backstops regularly. So, translating for those of you who found that confusing. First, such a high ask is basically a FU to the short-side (who, as you remember, need to eventually buy shares to cover their short positions). More importantly, as an indicator of retail sentiment, it meant that NO ONE ELSE WAS TRYING TO SELL AT ANY PRICE LOWER THAN $5,000. Absolutely no one was bailing out. I laughed for a minute, then started getting a little worried. Holy cow.. NO retail selling into the fear? How are they resisting that kind of price move?? The answer, as we all know now... they weren't afraid... they weren't even worried. They were F*CKING PISSED. Meanwhile the momentum guys and long-side HFTs keep gobbling up the generously donated shares that the short-side are plowing into their ladder attack. Lots of HFT duels going on as long-side HFTs try to intercept shares meant to travel between short-side HFT accounts for their ladder. You can tell when you see prices like $227.0001 constantly flying across the tape. Retail can't even attempt to enter an order like that--those are for the big boys with privileged low-latency access. The fact that you can even see that on the tape with human eyes is really bad for the short-side people. Why, you ask? Because it means liquidity is drying up, and fast.
The Liquidity Tide is Flowing Out Quickly. Who's Naked (short)?
Market technicals time. I still wish this sub would allow pictures so I could throw up a chart, but I guess a table will do fine.
Date
Volume
Price at US Market Close
Friday, 1/22/21
197,157,196
$65.01
Monday, 1/25/21
177,874,00
$76.79
Tuesday, 1/26/21
178,587,974
$147.98
Wednesday, 1/27/21
93,396,666
$347.51
Thursday, 1/28/21
58,815,805
$193.60
What do I see? I see the shares available to trade dropping so fast that all the near-exchange compute power in the world won't let the short-side HFTs maintain order flow volume for their attacks. Many retail people asking me questions thought today was the heaviest trading. Nope--it was just the craziest. What about the price dropping on Thursday? Is that a sign that the short-side pulled a miracle out and pushed price down against a parabolic move on even less volume than Wednesday? Is the long side running out of capital? Nope. It means the short-side hedge funds are just about finished. But wait, I thought the price needed to be higher for them to be taken out? How is it that price being lower is bad for them? Won't that allow them to cover at a lower price? No, the volume is so low that they can't cover any meaningful fraction of their position without spiking the price parabolic almost instantly. Just not enough shares on offer at reasonable prices (especially when WSB keeps flashing you 6942.00s). It's true, a higher price hurts, but the interest charge for one more day is just noise at this point. The only tick that will REALLY count is the last tick of trading on Friday. In the meantime, the price drop (and watching the sparring in real time) tells me that the long-side whales and their HFT quants are so certain of the squeeze that they're no longer worried AT ALL about whether it will happen, and they aren't even worried at all about retail morale to help carry the water anymore. Instead, they're now really, really worried about how CHEAPLY they can make it happen. They are wondering if they can't edge out just a sliver more alpha out of what will already be a blow-out trade for the history books (probably). You see, to make it happen they just have to keep hoovering up shares. It doesn't matter what those shares cost. If you're certain that the squeeze is now locked in, why push the price up and pay more than you have to? Just keep pressing hard enough to force short-side to keep sending those tasty shares your way, but not so much you move the price. Short-side realizes this and doesn't try to drive price down too aggressively. They can't afford to let price run away, so they have to keep some pressure on at the lowest volume they can manage, but they don't want to push down too hard and give the long-side HFTs too deep of a discount and bleed their ammo out even faster. That dynamic keeps price within a narrow (for GME today, anyway) trading range for the rest of the day into the close. Good plan guys, but those after market people are pushing the price up again. Damnit WSB bros and Euros, you're costing those poor long-side whales their extra 0.0000001% of alpha on this trade just so you can run up your green rockets... See, that's the kind of nonsense that just validates Lee Cooperman's concerns. On a totally unrelated note, I have to say that I appreciate the shift in CNBC's reporting. Much more thoughtful and informed. Just please get a good market technician in there who will be willing to talk about what is going on under the hood if possible. A lot of people watching on the sidelines are far more terrified than they need to be because it all looks random to them. And they're worried that you guys look confused and worried--and if the experts on the news are worried....??! You should be able to find one who has access to the really good data that we retailers can only guess at, who can explain it to us unwashed masses.
Ok, So.. Questions
There is no market justification for this. How can you tell me is this fundamentally sound and not just straight throwing money away irresponsibly??(side note: not that that should matter--if you want to throw your money away why shouldn't you be allowed to?) We're not trading in your securities pricing model. This isn't irrational just because your model says long and short positions are the same thing. The model is not a real market. There is asymmetrical counterparty risk here given the shorts are on the hook for all the money they have, and possibly all the money their brokers have, and possibly anyone with exposure to the broker too! You may want people to trade by the rules you want them to follow. But the rest of us trade in the real market as it is actually implemented. Remember? That's what you tell the retailers who take their accounts to zero. Remember what you told the KBIO short-squeezed people? They had fair warning that short positions carry infinite risk, including more than your initial investment. You guys know this. It's literally part of your job to know this. But-but-the systemic risk!! This is Madness! ...Madness? THIS. IS. THE MARKET!!! *Retail kicks the short-side hedge funds down an infinity loss black hole\*. Ok, seriously though, that is actually a fundamentally sound, and properly profit-driven answer at least as justifiable as the hedge funds' justification for going >100% of float short. If they can be allowed to gamble INFINITE LOSSES because they expect to make profit on the possibility the company goes bankrupt, can't others do the inverse on the possibility the company I don't know.. doesn't go bankrupt and gets a better strategy from the team that created what is now a $43bn market cap company (CHWY) that does exactly some of the things GME needs to do (digital revenue growth) maybe? I mean, I first bought in on that fundamental value thesis in the 30s and then upped my cost basis given the asymmetry of risk in the technical analysis as an obvious no-brainer momentum trade. The squeeze is just, as WSB people might say, tendies raining down from on high as an added bonus. I get that you disagree on the fundamental viability of GME. Great. Isn't that what makes a market? Regarding the consequences of a squeeze, in practice my expectation was maybe at worst some kind of ex-market settlement after liquidation of the funds with exposure to keep things nice and orderly for the rest of the market. I mean, they handled the VW thing somehow right? I see now that I just underestimated elite hedge fund managers though--those guys are so hardcore (I'll explain why I think so a bit lower down). If hedge fund people are so hardcore, how did the retail long side ever have a chance of winning this squeeze trade they're talking about? Because it's an asymmetrical battle once you have short interest cornered. And the risk is also crazily asymmetrical in favor of the long side if short interest is what it is in GME. In fact, the hedge funds essentially cornered themselves without anyone even doing anything. They just dug themselves right in there. Kind of impressive really, in a weird way. What does the short side need to cover? They need the price to be low, and they need to buy shares. How does price move lower? You have to push share volume such that supply overwhelms demand and price therefore goes down (man, I knew econ 101 would come in handy someday). But wait... if you have to sell shares to push the price down.. won't you just undo all your work when you have to buy it back to actually cover? The trick is you have to push price down so hard, so fast, so unpredictably, that you SCARE OTHER PEOPLE into selling their shares too, because they're scared of taking losses. Their sales help push the price down for free! and then you scoop them up at discount price! Also, there are ways to make people scared other than price movement and fear of losses, when you get right down to it. So, you know, you just need to get really, really, really good at making people scared. Remember to add a line item to your budget to make sure you can really do it right. On the other hand.. What does the long side need to do? They need to own as much of the shares as they can get their hands on. And then they need to hold on to them. They can't be weak hands either. They need to be hands that will hold even under the most intense heat of battle, and the immense pressure of mind-numbing fear... they need to be as if they were made of... diamond... (oh wow, maybe those WSB people kind of have a point here). Why does this matter? Because at some point the sell side will eventually run out of shares to borrow. They simply won't be there, because they'll be safely tucked away in the long-side's accounts. Once you run out of shares to borrow and sell, you have no way to move the price anymore. You can't just drop a fat stack--excuse me, I mean suitcase (we're talking hedge fund money here after all)--of Benjamins on the ticker tape directly. Only shares. No more shares, no way to have any direct effect on the price whatsoever. Ok, doesn't that just mean trading stops? Can't you just out-wait the long side then? Well, you could.. until someone on the long side puts 1 share up on a 69420 ask, and an even crazier person actually buys at that price on the last tick on a Friday. Let's just say it gets really bad at that point. Ok.. but how do the retail people actually get paid? Well, to be quite honest, it's entirely up to each of them individually. You've seen the volumes being thrown around the past week+. I guarantee you every single retailer out there could have printed money multiple times trading that flow. If they choose to, and time it well. Or they could lose it all--this is the market. Some of them apparently seem to have some plan, or an implicit trust in certain individuals to help them know when to punch out. Maybe it works out, but maybe not. There will be financial casualties on the field for sure--this is the bare-knuckled capitalist jungle after all, remember? But everyone ponied up to the table with their own money somehow, so they all get to play in the big leagues just like everyone else. In theory, anyway. And now, Probably the #1 question I've been asked on all of these posts has been: So what happens next? Do we get the infinity squeeze? Do the hedge funds go down? Great questions. I don't know. No one does. That's what I've said every time, but I get that's a frustrating answer, so I'll write a bit more and speculate further. Please again understand these are my opinions with a degree of speculation I wouldn't normally put in a post.
The Market and the Economy. Main Street, Wall Street, and Washington
The pandemic has hurt so many people that it's hard to comprehend. Honestly, I don't even pretend to be able to. I have been crazy fortunate enough to almost not be affected at all. Honestly, it is a little unnerving to me how great the disconnect is between people who are doing fine (or better than fine, looking at my IRA) versus the people who are on the opposite side of the ever-widening divide that, let's be honest, has been growing wider since long before the pandemic. People on the other side--who have been told they cannot work even if they want to, who wonder if congress will get it together to at least keep them from getting thrown out of their house if they have to keep taking one for the team for the good of all, are wondering if they're even living in the same reality. Because all they see on the news each day is that the stock market is at record highs, or some amazing tech stocks have 10x'd in the last 6 months. How can that be happening during a pandemic? Because The Market is not The Economy. The Market looks forward to that brighter future that Economy types just need to wait for. Don't worry--it'll be here sometime before the end of the year. We think. We're making money on that assumption right now, anyway. Oh, by the way, if you're in The Market, you get to get richer as a minor, unearned side-effect of the solutions our governments have come up with to fight the pandemic. Wow. That sounds amazing. How do I get to part of that world? Retail fintech, baby. Physical assets like real estate might be a bit out of reach at the moment, but stocks will do. I can even buy fractional shares of BRK/A LOL. Finally, I can trade for my own slice of heaven, watching that balance go up (and up--go stonks!!). Now I too get to dream the dream. I get to feel connected to that mythical world, The Market, rather than being stuck in the plain old Economy. Sure, I might blow up my account, but that's because it's the jungle. Bare-knuckled, big league capitalism going on right here, and at least I get to show up an put my shares on the table with everyone else. At least I'm playing the same game. Everyone has to start somewhere--at least now I get to start, even if I have to learn my lesson by zeroing my account a few times. I've basically had to deal with what felt like my life zeroing out a few times before. This is number on a screen going to 0 is nothing. Laugh or cry, right? I'll post my losses on WSB and at least get some laughs. Geez, some of the people here are making bank. I better learn from them and see if they'll let me in on their trades. Wow... this actually might work. I don't understand yet, but I trust these guys telling me to hold onto this crazy trade. I don't understand it, but all the memes say it's going to be big. ...WOW... I can pay off my credit card with this number. Do I punch out now? No? Hold?... Ok, getting nervous watching the number go down but I trust you freaks. We're still in the jungle, but at least I'm in with with my posse now. Market open tomorrow--we ride the rocket baby! And if it goes down, at least I'm going down with my crew. At least if that happens the memes will be so hilarious I'll forget to cry. Wow.. I can't believe it... we might actually pull this off. Laugh at us now, "pros"! We're in The Market now, and Market rules tell us what is going to happen. We're getting all that hedge fund money Right? Right? Maybe. First, I say maybe because nothing is ever guaranteed until it clears. Secondly, because the rules of The Market are not as perfectly enforced as we would like to assume. We are also finding out they may not be perfectly fair. The Market most experts are willing to talk about is really more like the ideal The Market is supposed to be. This is the version of the market I make my trading decisions in. However, the Real Market gets strange and unpredictable at the edges, when things are taken to extremes, or rules are pushed beyond the breaking point, or some of the mechanics deep in the guts of the Real Market get stretched. GME ticks basically all of those boxes, which is why so many people are getting nervous (aside from the crazy money they might lose). It's also important to remember that the sheer amount of money flowing through the market has distorting power unto itself. Because it's money, and people really, really, really like their money--especially when they're used to having a lot of it, and rules involving that kind of money tend to look more... flexible, shall we say. Ok, back to GME. If this situation with GME is allowed to play out to its conclusion in The Market, we'll see what happens. I think all the long-side people get the chance to be paid (what, I'm not sure--and remember, you have to actually sell your position at some point or it's all still just numbers on your screen), but no one knows for certain. But this might legitimately get so big that it spills out of The Market and back into The Economy. Geez, and here I thought the point of all of this was so that we all get to make so much money we wouldn't ever have to think and worry about that thing again. Unfortunately, while he's kind of a buzzkill, Thomas Petterfy has a point. This could be a serious problem. It might blow out The Market, which will definitely crap on The Economy, which as we all know from hard experience, will seriously crush Main Street. If it's that big a deal, we may even need Washington to be involved. Once that happens, who knows what to expect.. this kind of scenario being possible is why I've been saying I have no idea how this ends, and no one else does either. How did we end up in this ridiculous situation? From GAMESTOP?? And it's not Retail's fault the situation is what it is.. why is everyone telling US that we need to back down to save The Market?? What about the short-side hedge funds that slammed that risk into the system to begin with?? We're just playing by the rules of The Market!! Well, here are my thoughts, opinions, and some even further speculation... This may be total fantasy land stuff here, but since I keep getting asked I'll share anyway. Just keep that disclaimer in mind.
A Study in Big Finance Power Moves: If you owe the bank $10,000, it's your problem...
What happens when you owe money you have no way to pay back? It's a scary question to have to face personally. Still, on balance and on average, if you're fortunate enough to have access to credit the borrowing is a risk that is worth taking (especially if you're reasonably careful). Lenders can take a risk loaning you money, you take a risk by borrowing in order to do something now that you would otherwise have had to wait a long time or maybe would never have realistically been able to do otherwise. Sometimes it doesn't work out. Sometimes it's due to reasons totally beyond your control. In any case, if you find yourself there you have no choice but to dust yourself off, pick yourself up as best as you can, and try to move on and rebuild. A lot of people had to learn that in 2008. Man that year really sucked. Wall street learned their lessons too. Most learned what I think most of us would consider the right lessons--lessons about risk management, and the need to guard vigilantly against systemic risk, concentration of risk through excess concentration of leverage on common assets, etc. Many suspect that at least a few others may have learned an entirely different set of, shall we say, unhealthy lessons. Also, to try to be completely fair, maybe managing other peoples' money on 10x+ leverage comes with a kind of pressure that just clouds your judgement. I could actually, genuinely buy that. I know I make mistakes under pressure even when I'm trading risk capital I could totally lose with no real consequence. Whatever the motive, here's my read on what's happening: First, remember that as much fun as WSB are making of the short-side hedge fund guys right now, those guys are smart. Scary smart. Keep that in mind. Next, let's put ourselves in their shoes. If you're a high-alpha hedge fund manager slinging trades on a $20bn 10x leveraged to 200bn portfolio, get caught in a bad situation, and are down mark-to-market several hundred million.. what do you do? Do you take your losses and try again next time? Hell no. You're elite. You don't realize losses--you double down--you can still save this trade no sweat. But what if that doesn't work out so well and you're in the hole >$2bn? Obvious double down. Need you ask? I'm net up on the rest of my positions (of course), and the momentum when this thing makes its mean reversion move will be so hot you can almost taste the alpha from here. Speaking of momentum, imagine the move if your friends on TV start hyping the story harder! Genius! Ok, so that still didn't work... this is now a frigging 7 sigma departure from your modeled risk, and you're now locked into a situation that is about as close to mathematically impossible to escape as you can get in the real world, and quickly converging on infinite downside. Holy crap. The fund might be liquidated by your prime broker by tomorrow morning--and man, even the broker is freaking out. F'in Elon Musk and his twitter! You're cancelling your advance booking on his rocket ship to Mars first thing tomorrow... Ok, focus--this might legit impact your total annual return. You need a plan, and you know the smartest people on the planet, right? The masters of the universe! Awesome--they've even seen this kind of thing before and still have the playbook!! Of course! It's obvious now--you borrow a few more billion and double down again first thing in the morning. So simple. Sticky note that Mars trip cancellation so you don't forget. Ok... so that didn't work? You even cashed in some pretty heavy chits too. Ah well, that was a long shot anyway. So where were you? Oh yeah.. if shenanigans don't work, skip to page 10... ...Which says, of course, to double down again. Anyone even keeping track anymore? Oh, S3 says it's $40bn and we're going parabolic? Man, that chart gives me goosebumps. All according to plan... So what happens tomorrow? One possible outcome of PURE FANTASTIC SPECULATION... End of the week--phew. Never though it'd come. Where are you at now?... Over $9000\)!!! Wow. You did it boys, and as a bonus the memes will be so sweet. \)side note: add 8 zeros to the end... Awesome--your problems have been solved. Because... .. BOOM Now it's EVERYONE's problem. Come at me, Chamath, THIS is REAL baller shit. Now all you gotta do is make all the hysterical retirees watching their IRAs hanging in the balance blame those WSB kids. Hahaha. Boomers, amirite? hate when those kids step on their law--I mean IRAs. GG guys, keep you memes. THAT is how it's done. Ok, but seriously, I hope that's not how it ends. I guess we just take it day by day at this point. Apologies for the length. Good luck in the market! Also, apologies in advance for formatting, spelling, and grammatical errors. I was typing this thing in between doing all kinds of other things for most of the day. Edit getting a bunch of questions on if it's possible the hedge funds are finding ways to cover in spite of my assumptions. Of course. I'm a retail guy trying to read the charts and price action. I don't have any special tools like the pros may have.
Never Blindly Follow All "Stock Market" YouTubers | Possible Exposed Fraud [Tom Nash] & The 5 Reasons Why I Believe Tom Nash Is Lying
Hello everyone! This isn’t my usual kind of post, but man, I can’t stand to see how people just follow every freaking YouTuber out there blindly! In this post, we are going to talk about why I believe Tom Nash may be a fraud, so please do have some patience and read the full post, as I will go through an in-depth research of his past and his claims. ~Very Long Post~ Let’s start by talking about who Tom Nash is & says he is. He is a new & trendy “finance & stock market” YouTuber which has recently passed 150K subscribers after exploding during this retail investor boom, but here is a short video from his YouTube describing himself. In the video he is claiming he is a former “senior financial analyst” which is very hard to believe in my opinion after doing a lot of research about him. So let’s go through the 5 reasons I believe he is lying about his past & why you should never take anything any YouTuber out there says for granted and you should do your own research as well: 1) Let’s start with the biggest one, his valuation methods are flawed Even though he has posted some videos that have panned out, it’s very hard to differentiate good analysis from pure luck in this recent bull market, even monkeys could throw darts at stocks in the past 11 months and be right after the March sell-off. I was pretty curious of his valuation methods so I joined his channel membership and asked him a direct question, about his DCF valuation, to which he responded bluntly that I am doing things wrong. I also sent him a direct link to a well-known financial institute, where we can see that the most common cash flow used for financial modeling, which is the unlevered free cash flow, implies that you subtract any capital expenditures of the company, which contradicts the way he sees it and is plain wrong, it’s like he uses 2nd grade math, if you subtract a negative number then your cash flow actually increases, which doesn’t even make sense. How can something that costs you money be a positive on the free cash flow? I’ll let you digest this as I will next show you some of his DCF valuations & how he uses absurd numbers and changes the formulas as he pleases just to reach some insane valuations for companies just to be catchy. Here are a couple of short extracts from his Salesforce DCF calculations, Exibit A - everything seems legit until here, now he starts with the biggest mistake in this DCF Exibit B - I’ll be blunt you can never, ever add the Capex number to a DCF valuation, that literally throws the hole calculations off, but let’s continue… Exibit C - So, using a discount rate of 6% is also insane, even with the current low interest rates, you should at least discount the average SP500 return, or use the WACC or any other type of metric, which is much safer than picking out a single company, as the SP500 has proven over long-stretches to be a great performer. But yeah guys, this isn’t the first time he has done these kind of errors, you can see he is using most of these methods in many stock picks which are then spread out to thousands of new investors, who don’t really have the knowledge to test what he is saying. I’m just showing you here a couple of stocks like Dynatrace, Opendoor, Alibaba, Peloton, Salesforce as I showed in the previous video and even Apple that have been analyzed and spread to the public this way. The other big issue with his valuations is that he is using insane long-term growth rates, as he used a 5% growth rate for Peloton to reach a higher valuation, so can you imagine? If Peloton grows at a 5% rate in perpetuity it means they should more than double the inflation rate every year and is way higher than any GDP growth the US has seen since 1984. He is also implying that Peloton has no debt on it’s balance sheet, which is 100% false, as you can see HERE, he used the cash, cash equivalents & marketable securities to calculate the short term assets while completely ignoring the over $700M in accounts payable no to mention the other current liabilities which would add up to almost exactly the $1.4B in assets he added to his calculations. But who knows guys? Maybe he is the real deal, as he has made some correct DCF implications for some stocks like Fortinet and FuboTV, by actually subtracting the Capex finally, though he doesn’t do this in every analysis, not even in the most recent ones while also keeping that big long-term growth rate at 5%, when I myself never use a bigger one than 4%. Just for an example I took his CRM numbers and popped them up in my spreadsheets, and even given his methods I couldn’t quite get to the same results without manually editing numbers, as those implications resulted in a 7% undervaluation for the stock, while only adjusting the Capex to be a negative on the cashflows and not touching anything else that might be wrong in this DCF, resulted in a 10% overvaluation for the stock. So, I think if he really was a 10+ years wall street analyst I don’t think he could have made these obvious mistakes. 2) So, Is Tom Nash whom he says he is or is he lying about his past? HERE is the channel intro for his YouTube (Which I can't even see anymore, but i was lucky to download it a couple of days ago) As you Can see, I don’t doubt that he actually went to Michigan or that he got and MBA, but I do doubt that all of his Successful “Senior” Financial analyst & consulting Career can be described with only a couple of weak-ass photos of him at an NBA game, or him casually at some kind of a course program as that is exactly what it looks like with the other guys in the back-left of the photo. Also, are we to believe all of this great financial career ended with him just taking out his fake plant from his office, while also smiling as he threw away at least a decent salary for a gamble on YouTube, which is very hard to do, especially when you are starting, as YouTube doesn’t really help the small guys. His YouTube journey seemed to have started on the path of exposing guru’s and not financial advice, as he also says in the video, so how did he turn to do financial analysis on YouTube? Seems pretty convenient that he just became an expert in stock analysis as YouTube videos on such things were booming. You can see HERE, he didn’t make a single stock analysis for the most part of 2020, which seems pretty off, as now most of his videos are on stock analysis, and while his channel was created in 2017, he conveniently deleted all the previous videos, which is another weird move to do. I also went on a deep internet dive and did a lot of searching about him and I found this video podcast of him. His main intro in this podcast is that he works as a consultant indeed, from Israel, and also the consultancy job isn’t for a financial company, it’s rather to help people on YouTube grow, so let's look at some extracts from the video: Exibit I - We can see the main part of the talk is nothing about anything related to his financial past, let’s continue Exibit II - It seems he started with a gaming channel, not even a fake guru channel, and I also found something about that FB GROUP which isn’t active anymore and all of the videos he made for that have also been deleted as you can see in this post from way back in 2018 as he was teaching how to make money on YouTube well through 2019, and was even giving out free workshop experiences as he was pumping out creator content which is miles apart from financial analysis (BTW, he is using the same freaking photo in his old banner & logo as his current one, just changing the green screen background), just look at his old YouTube banner (YouTube tips & tutorials) Exibit III - Yeah, it seems he also did some video on how to promote on Reddit, and what comes next guys is literally mind blowing, how much more can this dude lie & hide? Exibit IV - Well… Nothing to hide then… He even had a Fiverr account which was called tomernash you can see clearly HERE, that is his username, and when I went out to check it out right now, he is using a fake picture & and still might live in Israel, not the US, and on top of this he might not actually even be from Russia, which he has been saying over & over again on his channel. You can SEE he reiterates he is a certified YouTube consultant with no mention of his financial skills or certifications. And even more, you see what picture he uses as a logo yeah? Well, I did a reverse google search and found the other guy also has a YouTube channel about kinetic cycling. Maybe he was one of his clients that he reached a deal to use his picture, wtf, the more I dig in the more I am amazed of the lengths this man has gone to reach fame on YouTube. Exibit V - So… A financial analyst with no sheets, no paper, no nothing, great stuff for a senior financial analyst, I literally can’t take more of this so let’s move to the next reasons 3) Getting in front of the lie? I believe that’s what he was trying to do to, by making a VIDEO on this very subject in mid-2020 and popping up higher in the search rankings before his channel boomed. In the video he clarifies that Tom Nash isn’t his real name, but he also restated that he was working for a big consultancy firm as recent as this summer, and that he does shit tons of stuff which is very hard to believe, as usually this big consultancy firms have different departments for different things that he mentioned in the video. You can still find that video on his channel if you are interested But, by the way, how was he working on that job while also doing hundreds of Fiverr jobs as a YouTube consultant? He also claims to not offering any courses, e-books or other stuff like this, which is false as i showed in the previous reasons with his past YouTube courses & other stuff, and as you will see in the next reasons, something smells really bad out here. 4) Claims about his past I also took a deeper dive into more of his past, as you can see in his previous channel cover and info, he had only about 4K subscribers as he was doing guru video reviews on YouTube, but all of a sudden, he became a senior financial analyst from wall street that was living in Israel & doing Fiverr gigs, I don’t know what to say but it seems pretty fishy to me. I also checked his LinkedIn page, and all of his skills & endorsements seem to be related to his YouTube skills and nothing about finance or the stock market. But I also found his profile on Quora, where he wasn’t that active but still, well back in 2017 he was posting things about gaming & YouTube while supposedly still working on Wall Street as a financial analyst, and it’s interesting that there is no mention of him following anything related to stocks, finance, economy, accounting, statistics or anything other related to the stock market. So yeah guys, I guess when you make a new type of video and it boosts your channel from just 10K subscribers all the way up to 150K subscribers, you are willing to push the limits and lie about your past just to keep everything going, as YouTube is a really good way to make money right now. 5) The Transformation He has had even more channels in the past not only this one, which he has transformed overnight from a YouTube Channel Reviewer to a Guru Reviewer and finally to a financial analyst , as He created a second & third YouTube account called GearlyReviews where he reviews electronics and EuroBall where he only posted 2 videos. I also searched him through his Reddit posts and only could find things related to marketing & social media, nothing about finance yet again.
So, my personal opinion which I doubt to be wrong guys, if there is a case of a dubious & fishy person out there, he is one of them.
I believe that he has never worked as a senior financial analyst and especially not a stock market, asset or any other type of equity analyst. Most of his stock picks are small-caps that are highly volatile or a couple of recent high flyers which are very catchy to any YouTube audience. There are many things wrong about the picture he has painted about himself even though he has gone through a lot to try and erase his past. The fact that there are no mentions of things from the wall street or consulting firm, bad stock analysis and methods, fishy and dubious moves of his YouTube channels and especially fishy things about him being a consultant & analyst in early 2020 while he was already doing YouTube and other stuff back in 2017-2018 really makes me not want to buy his story. Folks, be careful out there, you can find a lot of YouTubers out there who make more money from their advice giving on YouTube, Patreon or other kind of subscriptions and courses, compared to the actual money they are making or have ever made in the stock market. So yeah guys, I don’t want to make a final judgment on this guy, but you should consider everything I have showed about him and all the problems with his past & his financial methods & just remember as always in a bull market everyone is an expert & genius, while in a bear market you can’t find any of these people as they all flee. Later edit: He has currently disabled his Fiverr gigs, learned Russian and deleted the profile image LOL SEARCH/PROFILE/RUSSIAN Thank you everyone for reading🙏 Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion! Have a great day and see you next time❗
Feb/4/2021: (1) Armenia will grow weed (2) Colonel charged w/bribery & tampering w/draft during war (3) Education reform: grading, curriculum, preschool (4) Bill: treason, disability ranking, media (5) Diplomacy (6) Rumors & rebuttals (7) Cancer stats & free treatment (8) $750M bond (9) in-out stats
Your 14-minute Thursday report in 3497 words. Part 1.
anti-corruption: Defense Ministry official busted with bribery & tampering with draft during war
NSS report says: a Colonel, who had oversight over subdivisions, received a ֏975K bribe from a conscript to transfer him to another location on Sep-13-2020. Part of the bribe was transferred to his online gambling account. When the war began, a draft was declared and recruits began training at a location in Armenia. The Colonel took a ֏1.2M bribe from a soldier in exchange for not sending him to the front lines. During the winter draft, the Colonel took a ֏5.2M bribe from another conscript and used his connections to send him to the desired service location. A similar ֏1M bribe was requested on January 6th from another recruit. The Colonel took another ֏1.4M bribe to help promote a conscript and allow him to work at a hospital instead of regular service. On October 22nd, during the war, the Colonel decided to help a friend move from bordering Khndzoresk (Syunik) hospital back to Yerevan. As a result, the clinic became understaffed and couldn't fulfill its duties. Moreover, the Colonel then helped the same friend not to be deployed on Syunik borders as a soldier and instead to handle tasks in the rear, on October 26th, in exchange for a ֏300K bribe. On October 13th, during the war, the Colonel and his accomplices wanted to help a soldier to leave Artsakh. When they learned that the latter was already on the "deserted" list, they took steps to remove him from the list. Then, he learned that his friends' sons received a draft notice, and use his connections to remove them from the draft list. After the war, on Dec-13, a friend asked the Colonel to make sure that his son, who was serving in Lusakert, wasn't sent to the front lines. The Colonel contacted the Lusakert facility but learned that the soldier was not among those who were supposed to be sent to the front lines. Nonetheless, the Colonel decided to defraud his friend by claiming that "he took care of it", and received a ֏200K bribe. The colonel and over a dozen others were arrested. Illegal weapons were found under their possession. The investigation continues to expose other possible suspects. https://youtu.be/ifo13WJLpsU https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042334.html
bill: harsher punishment for treason, spying, espionage
BHK MPs drafted a bill to increase punishment for traitors, spies, passing of state secrets. They want to raise the maximum punishment from 15 years to 20-life. The authors explained the move by citing many media reports about alleged "treason" incidents. The bill was discussed at a relevant Parliamentary committee. The chairman QP MP Vladimir said he supports life imprisonment as the minimum punishment. However, during the discussion, they agreed to settle on 15-20 years plus property confiscation, or a life sentence. The committee found the espionage punishment too harsh and asked the bill author to reduce it from 15 to 12 years. The BHK author agreed. The bill was approved unanimously and will be debated/voted on the Parliament floor later. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042354.html
Jalal is back with another position
The wounded ex-Artsakh army commander Jalal Harutyunyan will serve as the Republic of Armenia's Defense Ministry's Head of the Military Control Service. He will replace General Movses Mosi Hakobyan who quit on November 18th. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042353.html
Russian-Turkish ceasefire monitoring group begins operations
ECHR received Armenia's complaint against Azerbaijan regarding 228 POWs / Azeris counter-claim for 13 POWs
Armenian families submitted a petition to ECHR to require Azerbaijan to provide information regarding 228 individuals. Azeris want to know data about 13 people. (From the language it is unclear to me whether the petition is for confirmed POWs, or it also includes families of missing soldiers who want to know whether their relatives are POWs. Likely the former.) https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042406.html
Russia removed tomato import ban on 13 Armenian firms
Russian regulator will allow 13 Armenian sellers to export tomato and pepper to Russia again after earlier finding a food virus in them. A similar ban was implemented against Azeri tomatoes. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042433.html
US Congressman demands an explanation from the US ambassador to Azerbaijan over "congratulatory" statement
Rep. Bred Sherman wants to know why the US ambassador to Azerbaijan Lee Litzenberger congratulated Azerbaijan's Economy Minister with "de-occupying territories and US's willingness to aid Azerbaijan with rebuilding those territories". He reminded the US officials that the US is a member of the Minsk Group and should take steps to ensure Artsakh's safety and prevention of a new war. Bred Sherman praised Biden's appointee Anthony Blinken for stating that the US will review its military assistance to Azerbaijan after the latest war in Artsakh. Artsakh MFA yesterday released a statement urging countries, officials, and organizations to refrain from such "congratulatory" statements. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042370.html
de-occupy Hadrut NGO
... aims to help 13,500 Hadrut residents who lost their homes during the war. It was founded during the war by activists who held protests in front of various embassies. In the early days, they received aid from President Sarkissian's office. The latter gave shelter to 25 families. Today the NGO aims to help refugees with employment, while simultaneously lobbying for Minsk Group to de-occupy Hadrut so residents can return. "I hope that one day our NGO will shut down because Hadrut is no longer occupied," said co-founder Meri Davtyan. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042286.html
govt session: financial aid for Syunik border villagers
The government approved a new aid package for residents of Syunik's Shurnukh and Vorotan villagers. Those who lost their homes will qualify for the same aid package as Artsakh refugees: one-time ֏300K payment plus monthly ֏65K payments for 6 months. There is another pending aid package to build new houses for them. Context: Two dozen houses in Vorotan and Shurnukh went under Azeri control because they were built on the Azeri side of the internationally-recognized borders. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042362.html
bill: disability ranking to be replaced with degrees of functionality impairment
The government approved a bill, yet to be approved by Parliament, to reform the disability system. The disability assessment process will analyze the person's level of functional impairment while taking into account surrounding conditions. "Today, the system is run under a 1993 law that does not do a comprehensive assessment of the surrounding environment, person's ability to function in public life," says the govt. The draft bill will repeal the 1-3 Categories and Disabled Child category. A person's functionality impairment degrees will be light, medium, heavy, or deep. Disability will no longer be considered a permanent health problem. The assessment will be based not only on the factor of health problems but also on the environmental factors of the person's activity and participation in public life. Healthcare and Social Ministries, NGOs, the UN, and the EU worked together to create and test an assessment methodology. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042365.html Tags: #DisabilityLaw #disabled
bill: require unknown Telegram/Facebook media channel owners identified before "linking" by mass media
QP MPs want to require social media channel operators identified before a "mainstream media" can link to them. It doesn't restrict citing "anonymous sources", however. It also requires outlets to disclose sources of revenues for transparency. Read yesterday's news for context and arguments in favor or against it.. The debate continued today. QP MP Arthur: For example, a legitimate news organization with an editorial staff of 30 people generates information, holds interviews, etc., while a Telegram channel that we do not know where it is managed from and by whom, begins to disseminate sensationalized information and over time becomes more "legitimate" than real media outlets because media outlets "advertised" them. This is also a national security risk because it is very possible that such sources are being operated by an adversary country to spread instability and an atmosphere of fear in the country. // The co-author criticized the critics who "claimed that the bill intends to ban anonymous sources. That's not true. This also won't affect the protection of journalists' source secrecy." https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042357.html If you're interested in more debates: https://youtu.be/MTHwRa4YjgY , https://youtu.be/ThDNVwZYEp8 , https://youtu.be/S6C_NocS9N0 , https://youtu.be/3_-i2Z23ubI , https://youtu.be/wiPnmfeLNJ8 Tags: #MediaLaw #TelegramLaw #FreeSpeech
rumors and rebuttals: Artsakh army isn't being dissolved
Serj's won-in-law Mishik earlier circulated rumors that were denied by state officials. Today, Kocharyan-ally Vitali Balasanyan, who serves as Artsakh's Security Council chief, confirmed that the army isn't "disintegrating." After the restructuring process, there will be subdivisions with professional contractors, he said. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042344.html
rumors and rebuttals: Azeri flag won't fly over Artsakh govt buildings
rumors and rebuttals: Azeri families won't resettle in Stenapakert / none are shopping in market
Vitalik Balasanyan said there are false rumors about two districts in Stepanakert being populated by Azeris, and Azeris allegedly freely shopping in Stepanakert market. "Dear citizens of Artsakh, on behalf of the authorities of the Artsakh Republic, I assure you that despite the irreparable losses inflicted on us as a result of the war, the state is always committed to fulfilling its responsibilities to ensure the security and normal life of the population. Accordingly, I urge you not to pay attention to the false news. Everything is being done to create and expand the necessary conditions for a dignified life of the people of Artsakh." https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042344.html
rumors and rebuttals: Artsakh envoy won't stop operating in Russia
The Permanent Representation of the Artsakh Republic in Russia will not be terminated, said the Artsakh govt in response to rumors. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042367.html
rumors and rebuttals: no single currency in EAEU trade bloc
There is a district called Hollywood in Yerevan, Armenia. Gamblers were caught running an underground casino in there. This is the second such bust in the past few months. The police say ֏5.5B in damages was done to the state. https://youtu.be/sp0Sb--e_ms?t=60 https://factor.am/335320.html
anti-corruption: prosecutors charge education officials with ֏1.2B auction shenanigans
Prosecutors said: State Oversight Committee (SOC) audited the "National Center for Educational Technology" government-affiliated agency's finances between 2013-2020. Every year, the agency submitted a report on the work done by them towards servicing the education system. The bill was ֏700M annually. It was revealed that between 2012-2015, they granted an auction-based contract to the same company. It received a combined ֏2.8B in funding. The law requires the auction-holding officials to examine the market and take other steps before the auction. They failed to do so. Later, during 2017-2019, the same company was selected to do the job, but this time it was only paid ֏300-400M annually, far lower than during the previous years. ֏1.2B in damages was done to the state. A felony case is launched. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042389.html
re: Armenia's $750M eurobond sale / lowest % in history / $3B demand by investors / economy news
Read yesterday's news for context. Pashinyan: The issuance of $750M eurobonds is a strong positive signal for the start of the economic year. The issuance was done under the most favorable conditions in the history of our republic, with the lowest 3.8% percentage rate. Our previous record was in 2019 at 4.2%. The demand was for $3B but we decided to issue only $0.750B. First, it provides a guarantee of macroeconomic stability. Second, this is the first serious signal of overcoming the post-war economic shock, which shows that international investors have confidence in the economic future of Armenia and the policy pursued by the government. // Economy Minister Janjughazyan: this was part of our long-term plan and we had planned to do it while drafting the 2021 budget. We planned to issue fewer bonds but decided to add $250M because of favorable terms. We plan to use that extra cash towards the stabilization deposit, as a safety pad, to be used throughout the year if necessary. As long as our budget has a deficit we will have to borrow. But this is only part of the story; the country's overall debt burden is calculated based on various indicators. So far Armenia has been rated as a country with a lower debt burden. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042351.html, https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042352.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042363.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042393.html
how many people did leave and arrive after reopening air traffic with Russia?
The governments of Armenia and Russian worked on an "app" to allow mutual travel after taking a test. By February 15th, there will be 4-route flights in 2 directions. There were several flights in the past few days. 3900 left and 3400 arrived. 1423 Armenian citizens left and 1263 Armenian citizens arrived. "More people were willing to leave in December than today," noted Diaspora Committee chief Sinanyan. "Some people flew to Russia but had to return due to a problem. This wasn't due to the COVID app implemented by us. Preliminary data shows that they went to Russia with a paper QP code which raised the suspicion of Russian authorities. We will work with them to resolve this," said Deputy PM Mher. (say what??) "We need to better inform the public about the existence of this app. Restoring routine flights will help the tourism industry," said PM Pashinyan. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042358.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042383.html
Pashinyan about the suspended Amulsar gold mining project
He repeated his earlier position that "Decisions must be made that take into account Armenia's best interests." "The mining industry plays a very important role in the development of Armenia's economy, including in the security context." "We must make decisions to make investment programs acceptable for the Armenian public while taking into account interests of Republic of Armenia." https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042368.html
COVID stats
1829 tested. 147 infected. 352 healed. 11 deaths. 4637 active. "We're negotiating for vaccines via COVAX global initiative. Separately, we're negotiating with Russia for Sputnik-V. Vaccines should be available in March. It will be targeted at specific groups. It won't be mandatory," said Healthcare Minister Avanesyan. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042341.html , https://youtu.be/vXz3pHx1BlM?t=92
the consumer market price increase in the past 12 months
Armenia's consumer market inflation was +4.5% from January to January. Food +6.4%. Alcohol & tobacco +10.8%. Clothing +2.6%. Utilities +0.6%. Appliances +5.8%. Healthcare +5.6%. Transport +5.7%. Telecom +0.5%. Leisure & culture -0.8%. Education +2%. Dining +1.6%. Misc +3.5%. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042323.html
Parliament MP stops a citizen's suicide attempt
Someone tried to jump from Kievyan bridge. QP MP Gor Gevorgyan was nearby and stopped the attempt. The police took the distressed person to a station. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042329.html
psychological support will be provided to war participants and the public
Emergency Ministry says 15-30% of people have PTSD after the war. Today the government approved a plan to provide psychological aid to war participants and others. The target group includes families of missing people, POWs and their families, those who received disabilities, families of those who died, those who fought in the war, IDPs, civilians who were affected in any way. The program will work in Armenia and Artsakh. The government will purchase services from experienced mental health service agencies. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042403.html
Armenia will grow industrial marijuana on mass industrial scale / incentive to boost land utilization
Hemp is a type of weed that contains less of the substance that makes you feel high. The government wants to grow industrial hemp on a mass scale to boost mood land utilization and revenues. Pashinyan: this is going to open room for many speculations. It's important to present the project in detail so the public will have a full understanding of what is being done. Unfortunately, "hemp" is interpreted as something else, while in reality, it is a very important industrial raw material. The growing process has risks but there are oversight mechanisms that have been tested in many countries. Deputy PM Avinyan: the US, Russia, and China have a great experience with industrial hemp production. The practice was examined by the Economy Ministry. We're talking about industrial production only. It will significantly activate agricultural land utilization. Today, 40% of lands are gone unused. This is part of our plan to boost the production of high-value agricultural products. https://youtu.be/ssZgr2DR3DM?t=7 https://www.healthline.com/health/hemp-vs-marijuana#marijuana https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042372.html
Education Minister says the "controversial" parts of Church/History merger were "resolved"
Education Ministry wants to merge the school subjects "Armenian Church History" and "Armenian History". Critics said it will shrink the church-related materials too much, others called it treason, while others supported the decision, stating that it's all part of our history and having a separate class is inefficient. Education Minister Dumanyan says he met colleagues at the National Academy of Sciences and they resolved the conflicts "that caused a noise earlier." He will reveal details soon. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042379.html , https://youtu.be/V0sC3dx-gzU
Major education reforms: "education alone will not solve all problems, but there is no problem that can be solved without an education"
... said PM Pashinyan during a govt session while discussing education reforms. Kids in 1-5 grades will no longer receive grades; tt will be pass or no pass (still needs Parliamentary approval). "There will be a criticism. How can you not grade? But this is a comprehensive program that emphasizes the student's needs and preferences," said Pashinyan. "We need to pay attention to how the time is spent in schools and what skills are being taught in school hours. It will reflect in our society 15-20 years later. It will define whether we have a technological product or not. What we were doing in 12 years (school length) can be done within 9 years, but a 9-year school isn't the solution. Instead of shortening the school, we're trying to fill the gap in a way to have a 50% higher efficiency by the end of the 12th year. In developed countries, education starts not from school but from preschool. The lower the education entry age the more developed the countries are," said Pashinyan. (the govt has a plan to make sure 70% of kids attend preschools by 2023) https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042394.html
cancer stats in Armenia / annual rate / drops among children / fewer abandon treatment
world 9.6 million people die from cancer annually. 1/3rd is possible to prevent. Another part can be cured with the help of early detection. Armenia Cancer was the 2nd leading cause of death in 2020. It has increased in the past 10 years but at a small rate. Lung cancer is more common among men, and breast cancer among women. First time diagnosis by year: 2018 - 8762, 2019 - 7908, 2020 - 7050. Deaths by year: 2018 - 5199, 2019 - 5434. 2020 - unavailable. (55% men, 45% women) The cancer rate went up by 1.5x compared to 1990. However, it declined by 2x among children under 14yo. Fewer people abandon treatment. 3 years ago 53% of lung patients did so, today it's 40%. Breast cancer treatment abandonment went from 47% to 22%. (I translated the word բարձիթողության as "abandonment". Correct me if it refers to something else.) Artsakh The number of cancer cases has decreased in Artsakh: from 345 to 260 YoY. prevention Oncologist Safaryan says the early detection helps to avoid complications and save lives, even if it's the type of cancer that is known to reappear. There are many patients who defeat cancer. "Smokers should get a lung x-ray twice a year. Those working in chemical plants should get a frequent screening. Do not ignore symptoms and չգցել ականջի հետև. You can defeat it more easily when it's at 1-2 stages. It's a lot harder when it advances to 4." Preventing cancer isn't easy. The causes of this disease are many. Genetics, bad habits, obesity, surrounding environment. A genetic test can reveal the likelihood of suffering from illness. Some women choose to undergo a mastectomy to prevent possible breast cancer in the future. "I decided that if 1-in-100 is destined to be cured, I will be that one," said Ashkhen, a woman who recently defeated cancer. More: https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042291.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042364.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042405.html
cancer diagnosis, surgery, and radiotherapy are free
The treatment was made free recently. The Oncology Center urges the public to get screened as part of an early-detection initiative. The pilot program began in Vanadzor; 307 women were screened. Cancer diagnosis, surgery, and radiotherapy are free, while the medication has a co-payment. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042423.html
Artsakh president Arayik met donor Alec Baghdasaryan and thanked him. "Only with the joint efforts of the Armenian people is it possible to quickly overcome the difficulties and to plan development programs." Alec plans more charity programs relating to education. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1042326.html
I heard you guys like reading patch notes... So how about a fake one?
General / QoL
Dark Mode is now available as a setting and on by default. We also tied down the guy (who wrote the flashingly bright note about seizures) in a opthalmic speculum, in a dark room while opening and closing the said bright note for 3 hours.
Light Mode uses grayish / genshin-impact-blue color scheme.
Users can now map keys in settings.
New user center setting : Allow Teyvat Times to publish my in-game alias (not username) and last 4 digits of my UID (When you set a world record of hunting fowl and etc.)
Added setting for persistent aiming mode. If turned on, your character will try to get back to aiming mode even when you dash or you are knocked back.
Going in and out of aiming mode is now much smoother. You can still dash, cast skills and still keep the cursor on. Inspired by Tombraider? Idk why I wrote this.
When crafting an item and you run out of materials for it, the item selected stays in place and will not scroll all the way down.
When choosing characters for the abyss, the preview button to see which enemies you will face is also there.
When finishing an abyss floor, you can return to the abyss menu without ending the "run" to collect rewards or browse around.
Fixed a bug with sucrose/xinqiu bonus materials when crafting.
Fixed a bug with razor's c1 constellation not increasing his damage and not displaying a buff indicator.
All buffs are now grouped/stacked by icon category, attack/defense/regen etc. Hovering the cursor in the grouped icon will display verbose info. (e.g. thrilling dragon tales, character talent, gouba pepper etc).
Daily Login Bonus is permanent.
Claim All and Repeat Buttons are now available in Blacksmith, Battlepass, Expeditions and the Like.
VA/CV list is displayed instead of current selected voice language in character details. (e.g. if you go to a character screen, and have english voice language, you will only see english voice actor and you have to change language just to find out who the cn and jp voice actor is)
Hide ui/hud setting and dedicated hotkey is added for creating fan-made cinematics.
Unless it is an artifact or a weapon, an item previously recorded and consumed will no longer display as "new"
Added shield bar on top of health bar
Added party icon on the top right ui and a dedicated hotkey to switch parties
Added hotkey to switch to your saved Comps 1 to 4
Resin is now always visible at the top of UI (without needing to open up the map)
Moved UID a bit further down by 2px so it doesn't overlap with the buttons
Changed UID Opacity by 75% and has grayish text color, inspired by "windows is not activated"
Added a space character on the launcher download text (e.g. "Downloading75%" into "Downloading 75%")
Bonus damage from element-affected status (e.g. "deal 15% increased damage against cryo affected enemies" are enclosed in parentheses
Expedition Slot Remembers Last Character Used
Expedition Slot Remembers Last Hour Used
All map objects are navigatable for consistent experience. and are not overridden by quests. You will always be directed towards the one you choose.
Navigated Map Object Always Display Their Distance and Light Beacon (e.g. Leylines not having those)
Added enemy weakspot zones with varying degrees (green,orange,red) in the adventurer's handbook, if you kill 150 of a certain enemy type. Humanoid types generally have the head as a weakspot.
Fraction of Fraction of a bullet time effect and a red particle glows when you hit the weakest spot of an enemy.
Reading and Clearing Story/Voice Lines syncs across all devices you own.
Statues' Remaning Healing Energy now Visible on the Tower Itself. Dat Glowy thingies deplete when you use them.
Statue's First Healing Tick Revives Fallen Characters by 10hp%. Second Healing Tick is Full Restoration or until Remaining Healing Energy Allows it.
Critical strike Indicator
Enemies in the handbook are dynamically arranged by type , then alphabetically. All hypostasis are lined up.
All enemies are displayed in the handbook regardless of what region you currently are.
Journal (J) is now binded to (F1), since this is where you look commissions for rather than the Adventurer Handbook (F1)
Journal , Handbook and Archive are compressed and combined.
We bought a time machine and went back to the time when we did the hypostasis event. The last challenge in the event is now a new hypostasis after the three old hypostasis.
Andrius's Boss Fight is now properly a Trounce Domain, For consistency with other weekly boss.
Changing a Team Member in your active roster won't override that slot in your saved team comp
Active Roster and Saved Team Comps are now a seperate thing
Selecting a Saved Team Comp will replace the Active Roster (so you can replace one member before "deploying")
Clicking Deploy in a Saved Team Comps will immediately send you back to the game
Switching Party Members is smoother than an oiled tits smooth, regardless of network latency. Especially in Single Player Mode.
Resource and Player Position in the map has better visual clarity. (Imagine klee collecting wolf berries or philly mushrooms)
Option to adjust map size , and resource/player icons.
PC , map pin size collision reduced. If I clicked Taishan Mansion, I meant Taishan Mansion.
Mora , Artifact Limits and etc always visible in inventory screen regardless of which tab you are on
Blacksmith remembers the quantity of ores you refine
Adventurer's Handbook remembers the last filter you used when browsing enemies (all, elite ,boss)
Adventurer's Handbook points you the next enemy you are hunting (when you kill 1 ruin guard, you dont have to open handbook again to see the next one in the map)
Adventure's Handbook knows ALL of the elite enemy locations. The list seem to be manually added instead of dynamic, possibly due to chest concealment similar mechanic. If you hunt ruin guards, I think the book only lists 4 of them in the whole map.
Gameplay
Training dummy added near favonius hq. You have to do a story quest and spend resource to have it constructed.
Enemies now have a difficulty rating. The higher the difficulty rating is, the higher character xp/gold they will provide. XP scales off your adventure rank level. Extra Large enemies have a guaranteed chance to drop 1-4* artifacts. They will respawn longer as a consequence. It doesn't make sense that a huge lawachurl and smol hilichurl both give 20xp.
First and Second Dash now have different color indicators.
If you used 2 dashes consecutively, a subtle glow/indicator pops around your character for when you are able to dash again. Inspired by Deadcells.
Added Treasure Compass for Dragonspire.
All excess anemoculus/geoculus/dendroculus and crimson agate can now be traded in the antiques shop.
Treasure Compass will automatically change depending on what region you are on. If you don't have a treasure compass for that region, it will remain unchanged from what is the last equipped.
Treasure Compass search radius is increased region wide. It will point the "nearest" treasure chest's direction. The color of the direction changes the farther you are.
Treasure Compass will now consider puzzles as treasure, and display a different indicator. It won't tell you what steps to take to open it, though.
Added a domain for gladiator and wanderer's troupe artifact sets. Artifact drop rate from world bosses are FURTHER reduced. Weekly boss artifact drops are unaffected.
Prototypes will now drop at least once in the last weekly boss you face, if you are unlucky. The chance to acquire multiple prototypes within a week is unchanged. Drop rate is reduced consequently.
World Boss Artifact Drop Rates are now visible in the adventurer's handbook.
Prototype Drop Rates are now visible.
Domain Artifact Drop Rates are now visible.
1-3* Weapons are now craftable. They will require a shit ton of ores and materials. Cold Steel for instance will require 200 pieces of mint.
Added 6 new craftable weapons. Of course it will require prototypes you f2p piece of shit.
Craftables, Shops and Loot have higher priority versus signboards and npc.
Monsters and Enemies have higher priority (when attacking or casting skills) versus ores and flaming/freezing flowers and other resource objects.
You can now equip up to 3 gadgets.
New Action : long pressing a gadget opens up Gadget Wheel to switch gadgets without opening the inventory. Gadget goes into long cooldown.
Domains now consider your condensed resin before saying you are out of resin.
After completing a domain challenge, The start challenge object will respawn in the center of the arena. Game will no longer go into a loading screen. This is for the console peasants.
When claiming domain challenge rewards, it also displays how much condensed resin you have (so you know you can still do 1 more, or gtfo) when it asks if you want to continue or leave
Anemo Hypostasis will die if you manage to collect all the orbs, for a more consistent experience with other hypostasis.
Weekly boss timers are now consistent. (Some have none , some at top, some at bottom)
Dvalin's Mini Cutscene will hold your altitude (if you are gliding) when it triggers
Childe's Mini Cutscene is now automatically skippable (named "skip when already viewed once" found in settings).
Food is now sortable by type.
When choosing a revival food, the icon sizes are reduced and displayed in a grid rather than a long line. When in single player mode it slows down time. Like witcher 3 or tomb raider.
MRE can now hold all types of food, up to 3 slots.
You can long click/hold the MRE button and switch the food it holds. Goes into long cooldown.
Charged Longsword and Bow Attacks (for claymoreless comps) will now allow you to mine ores more effectively. This affects rock shield wall hilichurls as well.
No one uses claymore charged attacks, even with stunned enemies. Claymore charged attacks now deal increasing damage the longer it was charged uninterrupted. You will get staggered and take more damage as a consequence. The last attack of a charged attack deals more damage and wipes half of the planet's population.
Constellation can now be toggled on/off
Gacha / Shop
The first cheapest crystal top up (60+60) has been buffed to (80+80) crystals. We realized it wasn't even enough for a single pull and we laughed until our sides hurt. As a tiny token of goodwill this will retroactively affect everyone who purchased this item for n amount of times the person has purchased this item.
All in-game currencies (primo/fate/genesis/future except mora) are always displayed in the topright corner when wishing and shopping.
Pity Counter. When it reaches 75 it glows like christmas.
Gifting of purchase is now possible. In the case of chargebacks , the gifter gets banned. Gifts can only be sent after 60 days of purchase, and usable by the recipient after a week. Maximum of 1 gift per month.
Gifter must have a track record of >= $20 of purchase within the last 3 months.
Gifting is a sensitive topic. Chargeback scams fucks up game companies, banks and third party payment platforms.
Purchase history and total is added to track expenses.
Gambling addicition reminders when you rage spend. Also alerts a mhy employee when huge purchases are being made in error. It displays a huge red alert on the employees screen.
In Consideration
Reworked Elemantal Mastery to also increase Elemental Skill Damage by 25% (base, some current/future characters might interact with less or more) of your total Elem Mastery. Consequently, Skill Damage from Attack Ratios are lowered. Think of ad/ap ratios in League of Legends.
Character skills to deal compound damage of physical+element when using a weapon (e.g. diluc smash bouncing off pyro slimes, despite his big sword being sharp and shiny)
Items
Wind Catcher Gadget now refills with anemo energy particles.
Prototype Aminus/Archaic's proc cooldown refinement is restored. (Used to be 15/14/13/12/10)
Boar Traps are now craftable and equippable as a gadget. You can leave it up to 48 hours to check if you caught something.
Cast net are now craftable and equippable as a gadget. Can be used to catch multiple fish and crystal flies.
Crab Traps , can be left in the wild for 48 hours and catches 3 crabs per trap.
Inflatable balloon for safe swimming. Requires anemo slime materials.
Portable towers no longer expire.
Portable towers max deployed count is increased up to 5.
Condensed Resin can now be used on World Boss
Condensed Resin cap increased to 5.
Artifact Inventory Limit increased to 5000.
Weapon Cooldown Indicator displayed as status icon (sacrificial sword, archaic, etc)
Seelie Companions give 1% passive bonus CharXP(Blue), CompanionXP(Purple), Mora(Gold)
Crafting Table no longer consumable
Portable Cooker no longer consumable (requires fuel , 1 fire stamen = 3 uses)
Portable Warmer no longer consumable (requires fuel , 1 fire stamen = 3 uses)
Items mined are ores
Refined ores are ingots
Option to refine Magical Crystal Chunk without resin, but with immensely increased cost and time
Coop
You can see the general direction and how far an ally is like in pubg.
In-game voice chat for random players in matchmaking
Battlepass / 12 Episode Anime
Battlepass can now have excess points up to 3000xp , for the times when you do your reputation bounty and missions earlier before the next battlepass comes out.
When a new Battlepass starts, it starts on mondays , so no mission gets left out. All excess days until the next new-battlepass-monday are dynamic and flexible.
When using a condensed resin in a domain, it counts as 2 domains cleared in the Battlepass
Cooking ingredients (sugar, bacon, cheese, etc) counts as cooking in the Battlepass
You don't need to switch tabs in the battlepass when using claim all. Clicking claim all, claims all.
New battlepass campaign for 12 episode anime. Milestones are displayed on website and forum. Sales earned are transparent in game and website. Inspired by dota 2 international.
Percentage of battlepass campaign sales will go to anime funding.
Having at least 1 season of anime puts mihoyo in the "mainstream" status in the leagues of Fate, Princess Connect, Grand Blue etc. It solidifies the IP.
Quests
Option to abandon story quests (restart from scratch) to prevent blocking of coop
Repeatable Quests Ideas below. Coop and matchmaking is enabled. 15~30 minutes long, walking pace. Not mandatory for daily activity/event/battlepass for people with little time to play. Gives worthwile rewards (3 pieces of adventurer's wit, 5k mora etc)
Long escort caravan mission, from Mondstadt all the way to Liyue. From Springvale to Liyue. People and Caravan must survive. Enjoy the beautiful world of Teyvat, optional pit stops, coop chat/discord, region guard checkpoints and enemy ambush. Multiple client routes available. Go through dragonspire for a shorter, but more dangerous path. Get harassed by Fatui at borders. Board a ship and load the caravan. Get checked by Border Patrol for smuggled goods and diseases.
Repeatable Town defense without towers. Defend the Town from hordes of invaders. Something fun with coop.
Fatui and Friends Battle Royale. All npcs and doors disabled. You and the fatui bots duke it out. Healing only comes from special food that you pick up. Matchmaking enabled.
Beach Defense. Prevent the Fatui from invading the coastline. Your friends rain arrows from starsnatch cliff.
Beach to Mondstadt/Springvale goods escort services.
Elemental Reactions
Vaporize's Steam deals aoe damage
Overloads damage (electro->pyro) now deals x1.5 (pyro) damage
Overloads damage (pyro->electro) now deals x2 (pyro) damage.
Overload's knockback decreased significantly
Superconduct's damage (electro->cryo) now deals 2x (cryo) damage
Superconduct's damage (cryo->electro) now deals 1.5x (cryo) damage
Superconduct's negative armor debuff is moved to Melt
Melt gains the negative armor debuff due to the sudden temperature change, making surfaces brittle.
Melt damage consequently reduced. (pyro->hydro) at x1.4% , (hydro->pyro) at x1.8%
Geo New Reaction : Smoldering Rock or something (pyro->geo)(reverse not applicable) deals x0.3 (pyro damage) on top of crystallize
Geo New Reaction : Mud or something (hydro->geo)(geo->hydro) deals x0.1 (geo damage) on top of crystallize, slows enemy movement
Geo New Reaction : Snow or something (hydro->geo)(reverse not applicable) deals x0.2 (cryo damage) on top of crystallize, slows enemy attack speed
Geo New Reaction : Seeds or something (dendro->geo) deals x0.1 (dendro damage) on top of crystallize, restores 3% of your hp. Or entangle. Prevents enemy movement (can still attacc and cast spells)
Enemies
Enemies inside domains and abyss have their return-to-spawn-point-then-regenerate-to-full-health disabled.
Enemy AI a bit smarter. Those with mobility skills (whopper, smol geovishap, cycin mages) won't follow you to drown in the water. The game will not check if you are wet , but if you are in a swimming state.
Hydro Abyss Mage's and Hydro Fatui Gunner's Hydro Barrier now takes the same damage rate/ratio from opposing elements (cryo,electro) for consistency.
Hydro barrier new opposing element : Geo. It makes it harder to maintain the water shield due to the mud soaking up the water and adding weight.
Boss Childe's Spirit Whale Attack generates water in the sides of the arena, pushing you towards the center. You must have enough stamina to keep dashing to the sides before he does this, or you will have to perfectly dodge the spirit whale attack.
Hydro SamaChurl now heals at a rate of +300/HoT per AR Milestone instead of percentage. This is for when you are hunting a LawaChurl Bounty that is near dead and healed to full health in 3 seconds. Having a fixed amount of healing ensures that it is big enough for the intended smaller enemies and portionally good enough for large enemies. The other option is to use different healing ratios for small and large enemies.
Queen of Pain , I mean Cycin Mages have a stagger window when they are about to cast their almost-undispellable shield
Zed , I mean Shadow Fatui Agent makes use of his shadows to dodge your attack sometimes.
Smol Geo Vishap now drops less geo shields
Smol Geo Vishap now uses his rolling attack near you, not 150m away from you.
Smol Geo Vishap now burrows a bit less frequently
Ruin Hunter doesn't stay in the air up and raining artillery forever , in consideration of bowless comps
Fatui Cryo and Hydro Gunner Turn Rate Reduced by 10% when on Spray Mode.
Primo GeoVishap now has a tired/exhausted animation, instead of standing still and looking at you and what life could have been for 10 seconds.
Primo GeoVishap spin attack now has a 0.2 dodge window (previously none) and Spin Radius Decreased by 100m.
Characters
Dvalin's Cutscene when you dispel his barrier is removed and much smoother. He just falls in place and no clipping.
Character's "Main Stat" is now visible in attributes. Previously you can only know it when ascending or when using google, or if you really have a big brain.
All characters passive talents are now combat related.
All characters now have their own cooking/exploration/crafting/smithing talents. It is possible not to have OR have multiple talents in each category. We get it , everyone can taste what a good gravy is, but not everyone can make a good gravy.
Ayaka
Alternate sprint binded to a different hotkey.
Yes I came from the future.
Albedo
Elevator can be activated to go up and down by using the F key.
C2 stack counter / indicator via particles (think of razor geo sigils)
C4 plunged attack covers albedo's sword in geo energy (like noelle, but smol)
C6 crystallize shield has a different shape (leaf)
Amber
Increased ultimate radius by a tiny bit.
Allow targeting of ulimate by holding the ultimate button.
If baron bunny is present in the ultimate radius, it will absorb all pyro damage and deal it as bonus damage when it blows up.
If baron bunny was "charged" with pyro rain and hit with a C2 charged shot, it will trigger a micheal bay explosion animation.
Barbara
Restored Barbara's Energetic Voice Lines
New Lines sold seperately as Dark Barbara™ , comes with a Dark Dress
C6 Revive indicator is now visible as a buff.
C4 now generates flying energy particles instead of instantly regaining energy. Mind you that this is a fucking nerf to this piece of shit healer that freezes you. It's just that there's no flying particles when you use this hero.
Beidou
Casting the elemental skill applies a strong taunt and re-initializes enemies attack loop.
Bullet Time effect added when triggering a perfect counter, when playing in single player mode.
The ultimate's chain lightning deals tiny spark damage if it didn't jump.
C2 chain lightning has a different color.
C4 buff is triggered when you do a perfect counter (Taking damage to activate a skill promotes bad gameplay)
C4 perfect counter grants the maximum damage bonus
C4 shield has a different color.
C6 has aura on the ground (inspired by Dota 2's Necrophos , but purple)
Bennet
C6 Ultimate pyro infusion just adds pyro damage to your attacks, and won't convert them fully into pyro.
C6 Ultimate restores up to 100% hp.
Childe
Improved manly posture when in aiming mode
C4 Riptide slash and flash uses different coloparticles/animation
C6 has an indicator when it works and when it is available
Chongyun
Cryo Field's Cryo infusion just adds cryo damage to your attacks, and won't convert them fully into cryo.
Diluc
What seriously? You really want more?
Fuck this guy in particular
Elemental Sword Duration Indicator added
C6 his flames has some bluish tint
Diona
Fixed shield duration bug and increased by additional 1.1 seconds per claw.
Shield ratio based off max hp increased by 10%
C2 reduces skill cooldown by -2 seonds (press) and -4 (hold). The coop shield is added by default out of the box. Anything coop should not be locked behind a paywall because it will hurt the game and fanbase.
C4 has been reworked to grant normal and aimed uncharged shots 25% chance to deal charged attack shots.
C6 radius is increased and uses a different color.
Fischl
Ultimate now deals tiny bit of damage per 0.2 seconds tick when making contact with enemies (aside from getting hit by lightning once)
Ultimate can fly/pass through thorn walls. I'm looking at you Dendro Samachurl.
Shadow Raven Let Night F---!!!
C4 Ultimate hp restored now scales off damage dealt by the ult.
Ganyu
holding the elemental skill allows you to aim and won't make you backdash
C4 Freezing Field changes color intensity per damage increase
C6 free frost charged arrow now works with normal unaimed attacks.
C6 uses a different particle color. Sometime it turns into a bazooka.
Jean
Reduced Increased swaying of boobs by a tiny amount while holding the skill. You can kinda feel them slapping against your face. You can almost describe their softness and warmth in a minimum of 10 pages apart from you going sommelier describing how deep her sweat tastes like.
Jean's Charged Attack Launch Height is too damn high that you cant even hit the enemy, so - Reworked Jean's Charged Attack : Holding the attack button launches the enemy in the air. If you keep holding it down you will perform 3 slashes in the air. If you let go early you will stay on the ground.
Base Attack Increased by +5
Jean can now pick up the slimes dropped by enemies and use it against them for a bighead move
Ultimate radius is increased
Ultimate Wall Mechanic Reversed. Enemies are now trapped inside. When you use your skill (usually to regain energy) you can air-wall slam them. Block Projectiles from outside.
If any of you actually played jean support, a normal person would use ult to heal, cast skill to regain energy, then switch back to other characters. It doesn't make fucking sense to push them outside your wind arena because you want to fight inside the swirl/healing zone.
Ultimate swirls every 0.2 seconds , depending on what elements are inside. Field Changes Color Each Time Like a Disco Ball
Ultimate now slowly succs enemies to the center(without lifting them up)
Ultimate Damage is consequently reduced.
C1 Uses a different colored windblast
C2 Buff Indicator
C4 uses a different color wind field
C6 Ultimate is now an aura and moves with you. To break away from "buffed area" convention.
C6 Ultimate will get you to keep the windsaber for the ult's duration
C6 Shield Buff Indicator via Particle and Status Icon
Kaeya
Base attack incresed by 5
Elemental Skill (Hold) Sprays Ice , think of Igni but Ice in Witcher 3 or DND's Burning Hands
C2 Icicles light up when you defeat an enemy indicating that it really works
C4 Barrier is of different shape
C6 uses a different icicle particle for bling purposes
Keqing
Aiming mode feels a lot smoother. You can aim while moving and cursor immediately shows and the kungfu pose is only done when throwing the stilleto.
When in single player mode, casting your ultimate produces a bullet time effect.
C4 Buff Indicator
C6 Description is confusing as fuck.
C6 Buff indicator
C6 Makes your sword light up like a lightsaber.
Klee
Imroved Torch/Bonfire/Campfire and the likes Lockon (if there's any to begin with)
Throwing Jumpty Dumpty provides 0.1s iframe during her spin
Ult is now no longer greedy. Pyro satellites remain when you switch characters, making our lovable klee open up for support options. Child support.
C4 is now manually triggered, Pressing q again will make her explode, bigger damage based off remaining duration. less duration left, less damage.
C6 klee uses different bombs
Lisa
A lingerie shop is opened in Mondstadt to change her pantsu, socks and garter belt style and colors. Black Leather Tight Suit™ Sold Seperately.
Option to wear glasses as a Librarian added.
Climbing voice volume is re-mastered in asmr microphone, in all languages.
Requires "i am of legal age" consent in the user center
Elemental skill (press) aoe slightly increased.
Base attack increased by 15.
Mona
Alternate dash is now binded to alt key.
Hydro Puppet now deals half damage upon cast and half damage upon explosion.
C6 normal attacks use a different attack animation.
MC (Anemo)
Palm vortex can be casted in midair to break your fall (but not propel you up)
MC (Geo)
When you overlap geo boulders (aimed mode) it will trigger the geo explosion of the older rock, then replace it with a new one
Ningguang
Holding the skill button surrounds her in mini jade screens , unable to perform any action until it is released or ends. Useful for cinematic stuff. Imagine tanking childe's whale attack. Or someone wants to recreate triple rashomon scene.
C6 has a chance to use different attack animation.
C6 star jade now resembles a primo gem.
Noelle
Elemental Sword Duration Indicator added
C1 heals have a special effect and voice line when conditions are met.
C2 upgrade uses a different charged attack animation.
C4 uses a different barrier color
C6 upgrade uses different ult (possibly red with the same hue as her skirt) color.
Qiqi
C2 reworked as -15% attack debuff
C4 reworked as -20% elemental resistance debuff
C6 cooldown/availability indicator.
C6 has a different bling/color
Razor
Transformation Duration Indicator added
C1 increased damage now really works
C1 now has a buff indicator that it really works
C2 now has a special crit indicator
C4 armor shred now has a (claw mark) armor shred indicator that it really works
C4 (hold) has increased damage so it doesn't feel left out. It also has electro explosions similar to when you mine an electric ore as a special effect to indicate that you are C4 and have a big PP.
C6 covers your sword with electricity (like diluc) when it is charged and ready
Yes I play razor a lot.
Sucrose
Fixed crafting bug not producing any bonus when using large quantities (say 100+)
Improved lock on when blowing off dandelion flowers. Idk how she keeps missing them even at point blank range, Hell , at any given range.
C1 if you overlap the wind nukes the second one will be a 0.1s delay then it will go off with a slightly bigger radius
C2 ult has a different color
C4 has an indicator that it works
C6 buff indicator
Venti
Wind current generated by skill (hold) allows him to fall slower without gliding, and allows him to shoot wind lasers. Ehe
C2 Charged Shot produces a bullet time effect when shot at point blank or if all 3 arrows hit a single enemy. Sometimes he draws the holy lyre and it transforms into a primitive shotgun.
C4 buff indicator.
C6 uses different vacuum color
Xiangling
Ultimate deals additional damage when cast at point blank because you get stab and bonk while she is twirling her spear.
C2 last attack leaves a flaming trail special effect (inspired by kyo or iori from king of fighters)
C6 upon cast, Xianling automatically does a speed-up full normal attack combo and then releases the pyronado normally (while covered in flames or some shit). If you are in single player mode and there are no other enemies within 150 radius the ult will cause the screen to black out, like in legend of legaia.
C6 during the ultimate if it contacts with gouba's flames it produces micheal bay effects while raining carpet bombs and shit.
Yes flat is justice.
Xingqiu
Floating Swords Duration added
Fixed crafting bug not producing any bonus when using large quantities (say 100+)
C4 Allows you to hold the elemental skill for double backflips (inspired by law from tekken) cooldown is 1 month.
C4 Elem Skill leaves a faint rainbow (when ulted)
C6 Swords emit faint rainbow color. Rainbow power motherf-
Xinyan
Hitting large enemies counts as 2 enemies.
C1 buff indicator
C2's level 3 shield has some bluish flames
C6 charged attack uses a diffent attack animation or has an indicator that it works
Xiao
Transformation Duration Indicator added
C2 now leaves a trail of anemo energy that deals tiny bit of damage , trail lasts for 1 second and deals at 0.2s intervals.
C6 plunge attack counts large enemies as 2.
C6 plunge-attack-no-cooldown-empowered-dashes uses a different particle color and produces a bullet time effect when used for the 3rd time onwards. useful for cinematic purposes
C6 during the bullet time you can sneak in a normal attack once per dash
Bullet time is always disabled in multiplayer
Zhongli
Increased pillar aoe by a tiny bit
Generates energy particles per pulse, maximum of 1 enemy per pillar
Base attack increased by 5
Travelers can redeem promo code "WHOSYOURDADDY" for additional +5 damage, regardless if they have the hero or not.
Attack ratios increased by 3% per attack category.
C1 has a slightly bigger dong eherm statue
C4 Chaos Meteor errrr I mean Order Meteor has a different rock color
C6 shield uses a different color , come on you get the drift already.
C6 Meteor is affected by the element of the barrier you are wearing. The element is dealt as secondary damage, primary damage is still geo. (flaming space rock?)
Why different coloparticles/animation when you have C1-C6 upgrade?
It makes whales feels special, and it gives F2P players something to aspire for. It makes you want to spend with all the bling. Particle recolor is easy peasy and can be deployed within minutes. Attack animations on the other hand are time consuming. It almost always put smile in people's faces when a whale shows up in a ferrari. "Dude check this out a C6 GeoDaddy joined my domain run. Look at the size of his statue. Oh my what a BIG meteor."
Why are you doing this?
It's just for my amusement. I'm still adding random thoughts now that 1.3 has launched. I don't care if nothing gets implemented. I would nut hard in my shorts with QoL and alleged bug/bugfixes mentioned in this post more than anything.
Afterword
Leave your thoughts below. Sorry and not sorry for the broken engrish , feel free to copy and paste whatever, use it wherever idc as long as it doesn't annoy or harm someone. Translate it in your language etc. No credits needed etc. Let your mind flow
After-Afterword
Thanks for the awards and all kinds of reception
You guys are awesome and insane that's a shit load of awards thank you.
Gamestop Big Picture: The Short Singularity Pt 3 - WTF edition crosspost r/investing (I know), but its actually interesting and deserves more exposure
Yes, as you read, cross post from boringpeople, but it's well worth a read, as long as it is. All credit to u/jn_ku, and go read the other parts. Godspeed autists Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This entire post represents my personal views and opinions, and should not be taken as financial advice (or advice of any kind whatsoever). I encourage you to do your own research, take anything I write with a grain of salt, and hold me accountable for any mistakes you may catch. Also, full disclosure, I hold a net long position in GME, but my cost basis is very low (average ~$67--I have to admit, the drop today was too tasty so my cost basis went up from yesterday)/share with my later buys averaged in), and I'm using money I can absolutely lose. My capital at risk and tolerance for risk generally is likely substantially different than yours. In this post I will go a little further and speculate more than I'd normally do in a post due to the questions I've been getting, so fair warning, some of it might be very wrong. I suspect we'll learn some of the truth years from now when some investigative journalist writes a book about it. Thank you everyone for the comments and questions on the first and second post on this topic. Today was a study in the power of fear, courage, and the levers you can pull when you wield billions of dollars... Woops, excuse me. I'm sorry hedge fund guys... I meant trillions of dollars--I just briefly forget you control not just your own but a lot of other peoples' money too for a moment there. Also, for people still trading this on market-based rationale (as I am), it was a good day to measure the conviction behind your thesis. I like to think I have conviction, but in case you are somehow not yet familiar with the legend of DFV, you need to see these posts (fair warning, nsfw, and some may be offended/triggered by the crude language). The last two posts might be impressive, but you should follow it in chronological order and pay attention to the evolution of sentiment in the comments to experience true enlightenment. Anyway, I apologize, but this post will be very long--there's just a lot to unpack. Pre-Market Disclaimer: given yesterday's pre-market action I didn't even pay attention to the screen until near retail pre-market. I'm less confident in my ability to read what's going on in a historical chart vs the feel I get watching live, but I'll try. Early in the pre-market it looks to me like some momentum traders are taking profit, discounting the probability that the short-side will give them a deep discount later, which you can reasonably assume given the strategy they ran yesterday. If they're right they can sell some small volume into the pre-market top, wait for the hedge funds try to run the price back down, and then lever up the gains even higher buying the dip. Buy-side here look to me like people FOMOing and YOLOing in at any price to grab their slice of gainz, or what looks to be market history in the making. No way are short-side hedge funds trying to cover anything at these prices. Mark Cuban--well said! Free markets baby! Mohamed El-Erian is money in the bank as always. "upgrade in quality" on the pandemic drop was the best, clearest actionable call while most were at peak panic, and boy did it print. Your identifying the bubble as the excessive short (vs blaming retail activity) is money yet again. Also, The PAIN TRADE (sorry, later interview segment I only have on DVR, couldn't find on youtube--maybe someone else can)! The short attack starts, but I'm hoping no one was panicking this time--we've seen it before. Looks like the momentum guys are minting money buying the double dip into market open. CNBC, please get a good market technician to explain the market action. Buy-side dominance, sell-side share availability evaporating into nothing (look at day-by-day volume last few days), this thing is now at runaway supercritical mass. There is no changing the trajectory unless you can change the very fabric of the market and the rules behind it (woops, I guess I should have knocked on wood there). If you know the mechanics, what's happening in the market with GME is not mysterious AT ALL. I feel like you guys are trying to scare retail out early "for their own good" (with all sincerity, to your credit) rather than explain what's happening. Possibly you also fear that explaining it would equate to enabling/encouraging people to keep trying to do it inappropriately (possibly fair point, but at least come out and say that if that's the case). Outside the market, however...wow. You Thought Yesterday Was Fear? THIS is Fear! Ok short-side people, my hat is off to you. Just when I thought shouting fire in a locked theater was fear mongering poetry in motion, you went and took it to 11. What's even better? Yelling fire in a theater with only one exit. That way people can cause the financial equivalent of stampede casualties. Absolutely brilliant. Robin Hood disables buying of GME, AMC, and a few of the other WSB favorites. Other brokerages do the same. Even for people on 0% margin. Man, and here I thought I had seen it all yesterday. Side note: I will give a shout out to TD Ameritrade. You guys got erroneously lumped together with RH during an early CNBC segment, but you telegraphed the volatility risk management changes and gradually ramped up margin requirements over the past week. No one on your platform should have been surprised if they were paying attention. And you didn't stop anyone from trading their own money at any point in time. My account balance thanks you. I heard others may have had problems, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt given the DDOS attacks that were flyiing around Robin Hood. Seriously WTF. I'm sure it was TOTALLY coincidence that your big announcements happen almost precisely when what has to be one of the best and most aggressive short ladder attacks of all time starts painting the tape, what looked like a DDOS attack on Reddit's CDN infrastructure (pretty certain it was the CDN because other stuff got taken out at the same time too), and a flood of bots hit social media (ok, short-side, this last one is getting old). Taking out a large-scale cloud CDN is real big boy stuff though, so I wouldn't entirely rule out nation state type action--those guys are good at sniffing out opportunities to foment social unrest. Anyway, at this point, as the market dives, I have to admit I was worried for a moment. Not that somehow the short-side would win (hah! the long-side whales in the pond know what's up), but that a lot of retail would get hurt in the action. That concern subsided quite a bit on the third halt on that slide. But first... A side lesson on market orders Someone printed bonus bank big time (and someone lost--I feel your pain, whoever you are). During the face-ripping volatility my play money account briefly ascended to rarified heights of 7 figures. It took me a second to realize it, then another second to process it. Then, as soon as it clicked, that one, glorious moment in time was gone. What happened? During the insane chop of the short ladder attack, someone decided to sweep the 29 Jan 21 115 Call contracts, but they couldn't get a grip on the price, which was going coast to coast as IV blew up and the price was being slammed around. So whoever was trying to buy said "F it, MARKET ORDER" (i.e. buy up to $X,XXX,XXX worth of contracts at any price). This is referred to as a sweep if funded to buy all/most of the contracts on offer (HFT shops snipe every contract at each specific price with a shotgun of limit orders, which is far safer, but something only near-market compute resources can do really well). For retail, or old-tech pros, if you want all the contracts quickly, you drop a market order loaded with big bucks and see what you get... BUT, some clever shark had contracts available for the reasonable sum of... $4,400, or something around that. I was too stunned to grab a screencap. The buy market order swept the book clean and ran right into that glorious, nigh-obscene backstop limit. So someone got nearly $440,000 PER CONTRACT that was, at the time theoretically priced at around $15,000. $425,000 loss... PER CONTRACT. Maybe I'm not giving the buyer enough credit.. you can get sniped like that even if you try to do a safety check of the order book first, but, especially in low liquidity environments, if a HFT can peak into your order flow (or maybe just observes a high volume of sweeps occurring), they can end up front running your sweep, pick off the reasonable contracts, and slam a ridiculous limit sell order into place before your order makes it to the exchange. Either way, I hope that sweep wasn't loaded for bear into the millions. If so... OUCH. Someone got cleaned out. So, the lesson here folks... in a super high volatility, low-liquidity market, a market order will just run up the ladder into the first sell order it can find, and some very brutal people will put limit sells like that out there just in case they hit the jackpot. And someone did. If you're on the winning side, great. It can basically bankrupt you if you're on the losing side. My recommendation: Just don't try it. I wouldn't be surprised if really shady shenanigans were involved in this, but no way to know (normally that's crazy-type talk, but after today....peeking at order flow and sniping sweeps is one of the fastest, most financially devastating ways to bleed big long-side players, just sayin'). Back to the market action.. A Ray of Light Through the Darkness So I was worried watching the crazy downward movement for two different reasons. On the one hand, I was worried the momentum pros would get the best discounts on the dip (I'll admit, I FOMO'd in too early, unnecessarily raising my cost basis). On the other hand, I was worried for the retail people on Robin Hood who might be bailing out into incredibly steep losses because they had only two options: Watch the slide, or bail. All while dealing with what looked to me like a broad-based cloud CDN outage as they tried to get info from WSB HQ, and wondering if the insta-flood of bot messages were actually real people this time, and that everyone else was bailing on them to leave them holding the bag. But I saw the retail flag flying high on the 3rd market halt (IIRC), and I knew most would be ok. What did I see, you ask? Why, the glorious $211.00 / $5,000 bid/ask spread. WSB Reddit is down? Those crazy mofos give you the finger right on the ticker tape. I've been asked many times in the last few hours about why I was so sure shorts weren't covering on the down move. THIS is how I knew. For sure. It's in the market data itself. I'll admit, I tried to one-up those bros with a 4206.90 limit sell order, but it never made it through. I'm impressed that the HFT guys at the hedge fund must have realized really quickly what a morale booster that kind of thing would have been, and kept a lower backstop ask in place almost continuously from then on I'm sure others tried the same thing. Occasionally $1,000 and other high-dollar asks would peak through from time to time from then on, which told me the long-side HFTs were probably successfully sniping the backstops regularly. So, translating for those of you who found that confusing. First, such a high ask is basically a FU to the short-side (who, as you remember, need to eventually buy shares to cover their short positions). More importantly, as an indicator of retail sentiment, it meant that NO ONE ELSE WAS TRYING TO SELL AT ANY PRICE LOWER THAN $5,000. Absolutely no one was bailing out. I laughed for a minute, then started getting a little worried. Holy cow.. NO retail selling into the fear? How are they resisting that kind of price move?? The answer, as we all know now... they weren't afraid... they weren't even worried. They were F*CKING PISSED. Meanwhile the momentum guys and long-side HFTs keep gobbling up the generously donated shares that the short-side are plowing into their ladder attack. Lots of HFT duels going on as long-side HFTs try to intercept shares meant to travel between short-side HFT accounts for their ladder. You can tell when you see prices like $227.0001 constantly flying across the tape. Retail can't even attempt to enter an order like that--those are for the big boys with privileged low-latency access. The fact that you can even see that on the tape with human eyes is really bad for the short-side people. Why, you ask? Because it means liquidity is drying up, and fast. The Liquidity Tide is Flowing Out Quickly. Who's Naked (short)? Market technicals time. I still wish this sub would allow pictures so I could throw up a chart, but I guess a table will do fine. DateVolumePrice at US Market CloseFriday, 1/22/21197,157,196$65.01Monday, 1/25/21177,874,00$76.79Tuesday, 1/26/21178,587,974$147.98Wednesday, 1/27/2193,396,666$347.51Thursday, 1/28/2158,815,805$193.60 What do I see? I see the shares available to trade dropping so fast that all the near-exchange compute power in the world won't let the short-side HFTs maintain order flow volume for their attacks. Many retail people asking me questions thought today was the heaviest trading. Nope--it was just the craziest. What about the price dropping on Thursday? Is that a sign that the short-side pulled a miracle out and pushed price down against a parabolic move on even less volume than Wednesday? Is the long side running out of capital? Nope. It means the short-side hedge funds are just about finished. But wait, I thought the price needed to be higher for them to be taken out? How is it that price being lower is bad for them? Won't that allow them to cover at a lower price? No, the volume is so low that they can't cover any meaningful fraction of their position without spiking the price parabolic almost instantly. Just not enough shares on offer at reasonable prices (especially when WSB keeps flashing you 6942.00s). It's true, a higher price hurts, but the interest charge for one more day is just noise at this point. The only tick that will REALLY count is the last tick of trading on Friday. In the meantime, the price drop (and watching the sparring in real time) tells me that the long-side whales and their HFT quants are so certain of the squeeze that they're no longer worried AT ALL about whether it will happen, and they aren't even worried at all about retail morale to help carry the water anymore. Instead, they're now really, really worried about how CHEAPLY they can make it happen. They are wondering if they can't edge out just a sliver more alpha out of what will already be a blow-out trade for the history books (probably). You see, to make it happen they just have to keep hoovering up shares. It doesn't matter what those shares cost. If you're certain that the squeeze is now locked in, why push the price up and pay more than you have to? Just keep pressing hard enough to force short-side to keep sending those tasty shares your way, but not so much you move the price. Short-side realizes this and doesn't try to drive price down too aggressively. They can't afford to let price run away, so they have to keep some pressure on at the lowest volume they can manage, but they don't want to push down too hard and give the long-side HFTs too deep of a discount and bleed their ammo out even faster. That dynamic keeps price within a narrow (for GME today, anyway) trading range for the rest of the day into the close. Good plan guys, but those after market people are pushing the price up again. Damnit WSB bros and Euros, you're costing those poor long-side whales their extra 0.0000001% of alpha on this trade just so you can run up your green rockets... See, that's the kind of nonsense that just validates Lee Cooperman's concerns. On a totally unrelated note, I have to say that I appreciate the shift in CNBC's reporting. Much more thoughtful and informed. Just please get a good market technician in there who will be willing to talk about what is going on under the hood if possible. A lot of people watching on the sidelines are far more terrified than they need to be because it all looks random to them. And they're worried that you guys look confused and worried--and if the experts on the news are worried....??! You should be able to find one who has access to the really good data that we retailers can only guess at, who can explain it to us unwashed masses. Ok, So.. Questions There is no market justification for this. How can you tell me is this fundamentally sound and not just straight throwing money away irresponsibly??(side note: not that that should matter--if you want to throw your money away why shouldn't you be allowed to?) We're not trading in your securities pricing model. This isn't irrational just because your model says long and short positions are the same thing. The model is not a real market. There is asymmetrical counterparty risk here given the shorts are on the hook for all the money they have, and possibly all the money their brokers have, and possibly anyone with exposure to the broker too! You may want people to trade by the rules you want them to follow. But the rest of us trade in the real market as it is actually implemented. Remember? That's what you tell the retailers who take their accounts to zero. Remember what you told the KBIO short-squeezed people? They had fair warning that short positions carry infinite risk, including more than your initial investment. You guys know this. It's literally part of your job to know this. But-but-the systemic risk!! This is Madness! ...Madness? THIS. IS. THE MARKET!!! *Retail kicks the short-side hedge funds down an infinity loss black hole\*. Ok, seriously though, that is actually a fundamentally sound, and properly profit-driven answer at least as justifiable as the hedge funds' justification for going >100% of float short. If they can be allowed to gamble INFINITE LOSSES because they expect to make profit on the possibility the company goes bankrupt, can't others do the inverse on the possibility the company I don't know.. doesn't go bankrupt and gets a better strategy from the team that created what is now a $43bn market cap company (CHWY) that does exactly some of the things GME needs to do (digital revenue growth) maybe? I mean, I first bought in on that fundamental value thesis in the 30s and then upped my cost basis given the asymmetry of risk in the technical analysis as an obvious no-brainer momentum trade. The squeeze is just, as WSB people might say, tendies raining down from on high as an added bonus. I get that you disagree on the fundamental viability of GME. Great. Isn't that what makes a market? Regarding the consequences of a squeeze, in practice my expectation was maybe at worst some kind of ex-market settlement after liquidation of the funds with exposure to keep things nice and orderly for the rest of the market. I mean, they handled the VW thing somehow right? I see now that I just underestimated elite hedge fund managers though--those guys are so hardcore (I'll explain why I think so a bit lower down). If hedge fund people are so hardcore, how did the retail long side ever have a chance of winning this squeeze trade they're talking about? Because it's an asymmetrical battle once you have short interest cornered. And the risk is also crazily asymmetrical in favor of the long side if short interest is what it is in GME. In fact, the hedge funds essentially cornered themselves without anyone even doing anything. They just dug themselves right in there. Kind of impressive really, in a weird way. What does the short side need to cover? They need the price to be low, and they need to buy shares. How does price move lower? You have to push share volume such that supply overwhelms demand and price therefore goes down (man, I knew econ 101 would come in handy someday). But wait... if you have to sell shares to push the price down.. won't you just undo all your work when you have to buy it back to actually cover? The trick is you have to push price down so hard, so fast, so unpredictably, that you SCARE OTHER PEOPLE into selling their shares too, because they're scared of taking losses. Their sales help push the price down for free! and then you scoop them up at discount price! Also, there are ways to make people scared other than price movement and fear of losses, when you get right down to it. So, you know, you just need to get really, really, really good at making people scared. Remember to add a line item to your budget to make sure you can really do it right. On the other hand.. What does the long side need to do? They need to own as much of the shares as they can get their hands on. And then they need to hold on to them. They can't be weak hands either. They need to be hands that will hold even under the most intense heat of battle, and the immense pressure of mind-numbing fear... they need to be as if they were made of... diamond... (oh wow, maybe those WSB people kind of have a point here). Why does this matter? Because at some point the sell side will eventually run out of shares to borrow. They simply won't be there, because they'll be safely tucked away in the long-side's accounts. Once you run out of shares to borrow and sell, you have no way to move the price anymore. You can't just drop a fat stack--excuse me, I mean suitcase (we're talking hedge fund money here after all)--of Benjamins on the ticker tape directly. Only shares. No more shares, no way to have any direct effect on the price whatsoever. Ok, doesn't that just mean trading stops? Can't you just out-wait the long side then? Well, you could.. until someone on the long side puts 1 share up on a 69420 ask, and an even crazier person actually buys at that price on the last tick on a Friday. Let's just say it gets really bad at that point. Ok.. but how do the retail people actually get paid? Well, to be quite honest, it's entirely up to each of them individually. You've seen the volumes being thrown around the past week+. I guarantee you every single retailer out there could have printed money multiple times trading that flow. If they choose to, and time it well. Or they could lose it all--this is the market. Some of them apparently seem to have some plan, or an implicit trust in certain individuals to help them know when to punch out. Maybe it works out, but maybe not. There will be financial casualties on the field for sure--this is the bare-knuckled capitalist jungle after all, remember? But everyone ponied up to the table with their own money somehow, so they all get to play in the big leagues just like everyone else. In theory, anyway. And now, Probably the #1 question I've been asked on all of these posts has been: So what happens next? Do we get the infinity squeeze? Do the hedge funds go down? Great questions. I don't know. No one does. That's what I've said every time, but I get that's a frustrating answer, so I'll write a bit more and speculate further. Please again understand these are my opinions with a degree of speculation I wouldn't normally put in a post. The Market and the Economy. Main Street, Wall Street, and Washington The pandemic has hurt so many people that it's hard to comprehend. Honestly, I don't even pretend to be able to. I have been crazy fortunate enough to almost not be affected at all. Honestly, it is a little unnerving to me how great the disconnect is between people who are doing fine (or better than fine, looking at my IRA) versus the people who are on the opposite side of the ever-widening divide that, let's be honest, has been growing wider since long before the pandemic. People on the other side--who have been told they cannot work even if they want to, who wonder if congress will get it together to at least keep them from getting thrown out of their house if they have to keep taking one for the team for the good of all, are wondering if they're even living in the same reality. Because all they see on the news each day is that the stock market is at record highs, or some amazing tech stocks have 10x'd in the last 6 months. How can that be happening during a pandemic? Because The Market is not The Economy. The Market looks forward to that brighter future that Economy types just need to wait for. Don't worry--it'll be here sometime before the end of the year. We think. We're making money on that assumption right now, anyway. Oh, by the way, if you're in The Market, you get to get richer as a minor, unearned side-effect of the solutions our governments have come up with to fight the pandemic. Wow. That sounds amazing. How do I get to part of that world? Retail fintech, baby. Physical assets like real estate might be a bit out of reach at the moment, but stocks will do. I can even buy fractional shares of BRK/A LOL. Finally, I can trade for my own slice of heaven, watching that balance go up (and up--go stonks!!). Now I too get to dream the dream. I get to feel connected to that mythical world, The Market, rather than being stuck in the plain old Economy. Sure, I might blow up my account, but that's because it's the jungle. Bare-knuckled, big league capitalism going on right here, and at least I get to show up an put my shares on the table with everyone else. At least I'm playing the same game. Everyone has to start somewhere--at least now I get to start, even if I have to learn my lesson by zeroing my account a few times. I've basically had to deal with what felt like my life zeroing out a few times before. This is number on a screen going to 0 is nothing. Laugh or cry, right? I'll post my losses on WSB and at least get some laughs. Geez, some of the people here are making bank. I better learn from them and see if they'll let me in on their trades. Wow... this actually might work. I don't understand yet, but I trust these guys telling me to hold onto this crazy trade. I don't understand it, but all the memes say it's going to be big. ...WOW... I can pay off my credit card with this number. Do I punch out now? No? Hold?... Ok, getting nervous watching the number go down but I trust you freaks. We're still in the jungle, but at least I'm in with with my posse now. Market open tomorrow--we ride the rocket baby! And if it goes down, at least I'm going down with my crew. At least if that happens the memes will be so hilarious I'll forget to cry. Wow.. I can't believe it... we might actually pull this off. Laugh at us now, "pros"! We're in The Market now, and Market rules tell us what is going to happen. We're getting all that hedge fund money Right? Right? Maybe. First, I say maybe because nothing is ever guaranteed until it clears. Secondly, because the rules of The Market are not as perfectly enforced as we would like to assume. We are also finding out they may not be perfectly fair. The Market most experts are willing to talk about is really more like the ideal The Market is supposed to be. This is the version of the market I make my trading decisions in. However, the Real Market gets strange and unpredictable at the edges, when things are taken to extremes, or rules are pushed beyond the breaking point, or some of the mechanics deep in the guts of the Real Market get stretched. GME ticks basically all of those boxes, which is why so many people are getting nervous (aside from the crazy money they might lose). It's also important to remember that the sheer amount of money flowing through the market has distorting power unto itself. Because it's money, and people really, really, really like their money--especially when they're used to having a lot of it, and rules involving that kind of money tend to look more... flexible, shall we say. Ok, back to GME. If this situation with GME is allowed to play out to its conclusion in The Market, we'll see what happens. I think all the long-side people get the chance to be paid (what, I'm not sure--and remember, you have to actually sell your position at some point or it's all still just numbers on your screen), but no one knows for certain. But this might legitimately get so big that it spills out of The Market and back into The Economy. Geez, and here I thought the point of all of this was so that we all get to make so much money we wouldn't ever have to think and worry about that thing again. Unfortunately, while he's kind of a buzzkill, Thomas Petterfy has a point. This could be a serious problem. It might blow out The Market, which will definitely crap on The Economy, which as we all know from hard experience, will seriously crush Main Street. If it's that big a deal, we may even need Washington to be involved. Once that happens, who knows what to expect.. this kind of scenario being possible is why I've been saying I have no idea how this ends, and no one else does either. How did we end up in this ridiculous situation? From GAMESTOP?? And it's not Retail's fault the situation is what it is.. why is everyone telling US that we need to back down to save The Market?? What about the short-side hedge funds that slammed that risk into the system to begin with?? We're just playing by the rules of The Market!! Well, here are my thoughts, opinions, and some even further speculation... This may be total fantasy land stuff here, but since I keep getting asked I'll share anyway. Just keep that disclaimer in mind. A Study in Big Finance Power Moves: If you owe the bank $10,000, it's your problem... What happens when you owe money you have no way to pay back? It's a scary question to have to face personally. Still, on balance and on average, if you're fortunate enough to have access to credit the borrowing is a risk that is worth taking (especially if you're reasonably careful). Lenders can take a risk loaning you money, you take a risk by borrowing in order to do something now that you would otherwise have had to wait a long time or maybe would never have realistically been able to do otherwise. Sometimes it doesn't work out. Sometimes it's due to reasons totally beyond your control. In any case, if you find yourself there you have no choice but to dust yourself off, pick yourself up as best as you can, and try to move on and rebuild. A lot of people had to learn that in 2008. Man that year really sucked. Wall street learned their lessons too. Most learned what I think most of us would consider the right lessons--lessons about risk management, and the need to guard vigilantly against systemic risk, concentration of risk through excess concentration of leverage on common assets, etc. Many suspect that at least a few others may have learned an entirely different set of, shall we say, unhealthy lessons. Also, to try to be completely fair, maybe managing other peoples' money on 10x+ leverage comes with a kind of pressure that just clouds your judgement. I could actually, genuinely buy that. I know I make mistakes under pressure even when I'm trading risk capital I could totally lose with no real consequence. Whatever the motive, here's my read on what's happening: First, remember that as much fun as WSB are making of the short-side hedge fund guys right now, those guys are smart. Scary smart. Keep that in mind. Next, let's put ourselves in their shoes. If you're a high-alpha hedge fund manager slinging trades on a $20bn 10x leveraged to 200bn portfolio, get caught in a bad situation, and are down mark-to-market several hundred million.. what do you do? Do you take your losses and try again next time? Hell no. You're elite. You don't realize losses--you double down--you can still save this trade no sweat. But what if that doesn't work out so well and you're in the hole >$2bn? Obvious double down. Need you ask? I'm net up on the rest of my positions (of course), and the momentum when this thing makes its mean reversion move will be so hot you can almost taste the alpha from here. Speaking of momentum, imagine the move if your friends on TV start hyping the story harder! Genius! Ok, so that still didn't work... this is now a frigging 7 sigma departure from your modeled risk, and you're now locked into a situation that is about as close to mathematically impossible to escape as you can get in the real world, and quickly converging on infinite downside. Holy crap. The fund might be liquidated by your prime broker by tomorrow morning--and man, even the broker is freaking out. F'in Elon Musk and his twitter! You're cancelling your advance booking on his rocket ship to Mars first thing tomorrow... Ok, focus--this might legit impact your total annual return. You need a plan, and you know the smartest people on the planet, right? The masters of the universe! Awesome--they've even seen this kind of thing before and still have the playbook!! Of course! It's obvious now--you borrow a few more billion and double down again first thing in the morning. So simple. Sticky note that Mars trip cancellation so you don't forget. Ok... so that didn't work? You even cashed in some pretty heavy chits too. Ah well, that was a long shot anyway. So where were you? Oh yeah.. if shenanigans don't work, skip to page 10... ...Which says, of course, to double down again. Anyone even keeping track anymore? Oh, S3 says it's $40bn and we're going parabolic? Man, that chart gives me goosebumps. All according to plan... So what happens tomorrow? One possible outcome of PURE FANTASTIC SPECULATION... End of the week--phew. Never though it'd come. Where are you at now?... Over $9000*!!! Wow. You did it boys, and as a bonus the memes will be so sweet. *side note: add 8 zeros to the end... Awesome--your problems have been solved. Because... .. BOOM Now it's EVERYONE's problem. Come at me, Chamath, THIS is REAL baller shit. Now all you gotta do is make all the hysterical retirees watching their IRAs hanging in the balance blame those WSB kids. Hahaha. Boomers, amirite? hate when those kids step on their law--I mean IRAs. GG guys, keep you memes. THAT is how it's done. Ok, but seriously, I hope that's not how it ends. I guess we just take it day by day at this point. Apologies for the length. Good luck in the market! Also, apologies in advance for formatting, spelling, and grammatical errors. I was typing this thing in between doing all kinds of other things for most of the day.
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Try watching this video on www.youtube.com, or enable JavaScript if it is disabled in your browser. Try watching this video on www.youtube.com, or enable JavaScript if it is disabled in your browser. There's a large world out there and much to learn. In this case, I started working on C++ challenges at https://edabit.com/challenges. It's a very helpful we... Bloomberg Game Changers profiles Dallas Mavericks' owner Mark Cuban. See how Cuban spun his love of basketball into a multi-billion dollar enterprise.-----... Try watching this video on www.youtube.com, or enable JavaScript if it is disabled in your browser. Try watching this video on www.youtube.com, or enable JavaScript if it is disabled in your browser.